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Comportamiento de los precios del ganado hembra de levante de primera clase en Montería y Sincelejo (Colombia)


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    Este artículo de investigación tiene como objetivo describir el comportamiento temporal de losprecios del ganado hembra vivo de levante de primera calidad en las ciudades de Montería y Sincelejo,comercializado en las subastas. Para ello se acude al análisis de los precios durante el periodo1997-2008 utilizando técnicas estadísticas y económetricas como la media móvil multiplicativa, latasa de crecimiento sobre medias anuales y modelos generalizados auto- regresivos condicionalesheterocedásticos, GARCH. Los resultados indican la presencia de estacionalidad y ciclos en losprecios mensuales; en los precios semanales hay evidencias de volatilidad, lo cual genera riesgospara la inversión ganadera en el largo plazo y torna impredecibles su evolución

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    Volume (Year): (2008)
    Issue (Month): ()

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    Handle: RePEc:col:000180:010426

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    Keywords: estacionalidad; ciclos; volatilidad; media móvil; tasas de crecimiento; modeloseconométricos;

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    1. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    2. Satheesh V. Aradhyula & Matthew T. Holt, 1988. "GARCH Time Series Models: An Application to Retail Livestock Prices," Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) Publications 88-wp29, Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) at Iowa State University.
    3. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    4. Yair Mundlak & He Huang, 1996. "International Comparisons of Cattle Cycles," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 78(4), pages 855-868.
    5. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-38, July.
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