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The credibility of the Venezuela crawling-band system

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  • María I. Campos

    ()

  • José L. Torres

    ()

  • Esmeralda Villegas

    ()

Abstract

This paper studies the credibility of the Venezuela crawling-band exchange rate regime during the period July, 1996-February, 2002. We show that, introducing some modifications, the credibility analysis widely applied to target zone regimes can also be used in studying the credibility of crawling- band regimes. In analyzing the credibility of the Venezuela crawling band, first we use the so-called simple credibility tests developed by Svensson (1991). Additionally, we estimate the expected rate of realignment using the drift- adjustment method. Both the credibility tests and the drift-adjustment method give similar results, showing that the crawling-band system was highly credible during the period.

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File URL: http://www.urosario.edu.co/FASE1/economia/documentos/v9n2_campos_torres_villegas.pdf
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Article provided by UNIVERSIDAD DEL ROSARIO in its journal REVISTA DE ECONOMÍA DEL ROSARIO.

Volume (Year): (2006)
Issue (Month): ()
Pages:

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Handle: RePEc:col:000151:003580

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Keywords: crawling band exchange rate system; credibility; realignments;

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  1. Svensson, L.E.O., 1990. "The Simplest Test of Target Zone Credibility," Papers, Stockholm - International Economic Studies 469, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  2. Alun H. Thomas, 1994. "Expected Devaluation and Economic Fundamentals," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 41(2), pages 262-285, June.
  3. Giuseppe Bertola & Lars E.O. Svensson, 1991. "Stochastic Devaluation Risk and the Empirical Fit of Target Zone Models," NBER Working Papers 3576, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. John Williamson, 1996. "Crawling Band as an Exchange Rate Regime: Lessons from Chile, Colombia and Israel, The," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 14, July.
  5. Williamson, John, 1982. "A survey of the literature on the optimal peg," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 39-61, August.
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