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Bayesian estimation and model selection for the weekly Colombian exchange rate

Author

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  • Norberto Rodríguez

Abstract

This document reviews and applies recently developed techniques for Bayesian estimation and model selection in the context of Time Series modelingfor Stochastic volatility. After the literature review on Generalized Conditional Autoregressive models, Stochastic Volatility models, and the relevant results on Markov chain monte Carlo methods (MCMC), an example applying such techniques is shown. The methodology is used with a series of Weekly Colombian - USA Exchange Rate on seven different models. The GARCH model, which uses Type-IV Pearson distribution, is favored for the selecting technique, Reversible Jump MCMC, over other models, including stochastic Volatility models with a student-t distribution.

Suggested Citation

  • Norberto Rodríguez, 2001. "Bayesian estimation and model selection for the weekly Colombian exchange rate," Revista de Economía del Rosario, Universidad del Rosario, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000151:002059
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    File URL: http://revistas.urosario.edu.co/index.php/economia/article/view/1003/902
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Estimation; markov chain Monte Carlo Methods MCMC; GARCH Models; Stochastic volatility; model selection;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection

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