IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/col/000129/006870.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Potential Dividends And Actual Cash Flows In Equity Valuation. A Critical Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • IGNACIO VÉLEZ - PAREJA
  • CARLO ALBERTO MAGNI

Abstract

Practitioners and most academics in valuation include changes in liquid assets (potential dividends) in the cash flows. This widespread and wrong practice is inconsistent with basic finance theory. We present economic, theoretical, and empirical arguments to support the thesis. Economic arguments underline that only flows of cash should be considered for valuation; theoretical arguments show how potential dividends lead to contradiction and to arbitrage losses. Empirical arguments, from recent studies, suggest that investors discount potential dividends with high discount rates, which means thatchanges in liquid assets are not value drivers. Hence, when valuing cash flows, we should consider only actual payments.

Suggested Citation

  • Ignacio Vélez - Pareja & Carlo Alberto Magni, 2009. "Potential Dividends And Actual Cash Flows In Equity Valuation. A Critical Analysis," Estudios Gerenciales, Universidad Icesi, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000129:006870
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://biblioteca2.icesi.edu.co/cgi-olib?session=38868954&infile=&sobj=3387&source=webvd&cgimime=text%2Fhtml
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lee Pinkowitz & Rohan Williamson & René M. Stulz, 2007. "Cash Holdings, Dividend Policy, and Corporate Governance: A Cross‐Country Analysis," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 19(1), pages 81-87, January.
    2. DeAngelo, Harry & DeAngelo, Linda, 2006. "The irrelevance of the MM dividend irrelevance theorem," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(2), pages 293-315, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Erkan, Asligul & Fainshmidt, Stav & Judge, William Q., 2016. "Variance decomposition of the country, industry, firm, and firm-year effects on dividend policy," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 25(6), pages 1309-1320.
    2. Vélez-Pareja, Ignacio & Magni, Carlo Alberto, 2008. "Potential dividends and actual cash flows. Theoretical and empirical reasons for using ‘actual’ and dismissing ‘potential’, Or: How not to pull potential rabbits out of actual hats," MPRA Paper 7266, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Michael A. Goldstein & Abhinav Goyal & Brian M. Lucey & Cal B. Muckley, 2015. "The Global Preference for Dividends in Declining Markets," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 50(4), pages 575-609, November.
    4. Renneboog, Luc & Szilagyi, Peter G., 2020. "How relevant is dividend policy under low shareholder protection?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    5. Beyer, Brooke & Downes, Jimmy & Rapley, Eric T., 2017. "Internal capital market inefficiencies, shareholder payout, and abnormal leverage," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 39-57.
    6. Neugebauer, Tibor & Shachat, Jason & Szymczak, Wiebke, 2023. "A test of the Modigliani-Miller theorem, dividend policy and algorithmic arbitrage in experimental asset markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    7. Magni, Carlo Alberto, 2016. "Capital depreciation and the underdetermination of rate of return: A unifying perspective," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 54-79.
    8. Grey, Colette & Flynn, Antoinette & Donnelly, Ray, 2020. "Management compensation contracts and distribution policies in the US technology sector," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    9. Tran, Quoc Trung, 2021. "Local corruption and dividend policy: Evidence from Vietnam," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 195-205.
    10. Jack Stecher & Mark Atten, 2015. "Using Brouwer’s continuity principle to pick stocks," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 225(1), pages 161-171, February.
    11. James, Hui & Benson, Bradley W. & Wu, Chen (Ken), 2017. "Does CEO ownership affect payout policy? Evidence from using CEO scaled wealth-performance sensitivity," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 328-345.
    12. Krieger, Kevin & Lee, Bong-Soo & Mauck, Nathan, 2013. "Do senior citizens prefer dividends? Local clienteles vs. firm characteristics," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 150-165.
    13. Jacob, Martin & Alstadsæter, Annette, 2013. "Payout policies of privately held firms: Flexibility and the role of income taxes," arqus Discussion Papers in Quantitative Tax Research 152, arqus - Arbeitskreis Quantitative Steuerlehre.
    14. Gyimah, Daniel & Gyapong, Ernest, 2021. "Managerial entrenchment and payout policy: A catering effect," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    15. Phung Anh Thu & Nguyen Vinh Khuong, 2018. "Factors Effect on Corporate Cash Holdings of the Energy Enterprises Listed on Vietnam s Stock Market," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 8(5), pages 29-34.
    16. Ester Chen & Ilanit Gavious & Nadav Steinberg, 2019. "Dividends from unrealized earnings and default risk," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 491-535, June.
    17. ElBannan, Mona A., 2020. "Does catering behavior persist? Evidence on dividend sentiment in emerging financial markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 350-373.
    18. Nekat, Kai & Nippel, Peter, 2007. "The impact of a firm's payout policy on stock prices and shareholders' wealth in an inefficient market," Manuskripte aus den Instituten für Betriebswirtschaftslehre der Universität Kiel 619, Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel, Institut für Betriebswirtschaftslehre.
    19. Denis, David J. & Osobov, Igor, 2008. "Why do firms pay dividends? International evidence on the determinants of dividend policy," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 62-82, July.
    20. ElBannan, Mona A., 2021. "On the prediction of financial distress in emerging markets: What matters more? Empirical evidence from Arab spring countries," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cash flow to equity; potential dividends; equity value.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • M41 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Accounting - - - Accounting
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:col:000129:006870. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Coordinador ICESI (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/fciceco.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.