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Latin America and the international economic CRISIS: THE TRADE CHANNEL

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  • Ricardo Argüello C.a

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Abstract

Resumen Esta investigación propone una vía para la evaluación del impacto de corto plazo que la crisis financiera y económica internacional, transmitida esencialmente a través del canal comercial, puede tener sobre un conjunto de ocho economías latinoamericanas. Para el efecto se emplea un modelo del sector real, el modelo GTAP, caracterizado por ser de alcance global y operar bajo el supuesto de retornos constantes a escala. La estrategia de modelación se basa en la implementación de un choque negativo a la dotación de capital de las economías de Estados Unidos y la Unión Europea, de forma tal que se genere un decrecimiento del PIB similar al pronosticado para 2009 por el FMI. Los principales resultados muestran un esperado y generalizado efecto negativo sobre el PIB. Sin embargo, su intensidad no necesariamente depende del grado de dependencia comercial de las economías con respecto a Estados Unidos y la Unión Europea. La composición sectorial del comercio tiene importancia. Otro tanto sucede con el comportamiento de los precios internacionales. A pesar de que el impacto de la crisis sobre el valor de los flujos comerciales luce relativamente moderado, la caída del PIB tiende a ser mayor y no es desdeñable. No obstante, cuando el impacto se mide en términos de bienestar resulta ser más bien moderado. Palabras clave: comercio internacional, la crisis mundial, Colombia, de equilibrio general computable.

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File URL: http://revistaeconomia.puj.edu.co/html/articulos/Numero_8/Arguello.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by UNIVERSIDAD JAVERIANA - CALI in its journal ECONOMÍA, GESTIÓN Y DESARROLLO.

Volume (Year): (2009)
Issue (Month): ()
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Handle: RePEc:col:000097:009340

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  1. Clark, Gregory & O'Rourke, Kevin H & Taylor, Alan M, 2008. "Made in America? The New World, the Old, and the Industrial Revolution," CEPR Discussion Papers 6856, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Escaith, Hubert & Gonguet, Fabien, 2009. "International Trade and Real Transmission Channels of Financial Shocks in Globalized Production Networks," MPRA Paper 15558, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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