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Informalidad, Política Social Y Tipo De Cambio


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  • Ándres Felipe Mora Cortés


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    RESUMEN Un modelo de economía abierta con bienes transables y no transables, caracterizado por la existencia de un sector informal constituye una buena representación de la realidad económica de las economías del tercer mundo. Con base en un modelo de esta clase, el presente trabajo analizará los efectos que la variación del tipo de cambio real produce sobre el sector informal de la economía en un contexto de políticas sociales sustentadas en la focalización de los subsidios a la demanda y la inversión en capital humano. Por medio de una aproximación a la coyuntura actual de la economía colombiana, se argumentará que el proceso de apreciación del tipo de cambio real (provocado por el incremento del precio de los bienes no transables y la revaluación del tipo de cambio nominal) genera presiones para la ampliación de la informalidad, aumentando los desincentivos que una política social basada en la focalización impone sobre las posibilidades de formalización del empleo. Si la persistencia de la informalidad es producida por la revaluación del tipo de cambio y la focalización de los subsidios a la demanda, se brindan argumentos a favor de la estabilización del precio de los bienes no transables, de la regulación sobre los flujos de capital, del control sobre el tipo de cambio nominal y de políticas sociales universalistas como mecanismos para combatir la informalidad. ABSTRACT An open-economy model with traded and non-traded goods, characterized by the existence of an informal sector is a faithful representation of the economic reality of the third-world economies. On the basis of such type of model, this paper will examine the effects of changes in the real exchange rate on the informal sector of the economy within a context of social policies supported on the focalization of demand subsidies and investment in human capital. Through an approach to the Colombian present economic climate, the revaluation process of the real exchange rate (as brought about by the increased price of non-traded goods and appreciation of the nominal exchange rate) will be argued to put pressure on the boost of informality as it increases the deterrents that a social policy based on focalization imposes on job-formalization possibilities. If persistence of informality is produced by revaluation of the exchange rate and focalization of the demand subsidies, arguments will be provided in favor of stabilization of the price of non-traded goods, regulation of capital flows, and control of the nominal exchange rate and universal social policies as mechanisms to fight informality.

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    Volume (Year): (2008)
    Issue (Month): ()

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    Handle: RePEc:col:000097:005225

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