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Deuda externa pública e inversión en Colombia 1994-2007: evidencia de un modelo no-lineal TAR

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Author Info

  • Andrés Eduardo Salamanca Lugo

    ()

  • Viviana del Pilar Monroy Mejía

    ()

Abstract

Este documento examina la relación existente entre la deuda externa del gobierno nacional y la inversión privada en Colombia entre 1994 y 2007, a partir del modelo de series de tiempo no lineales TAR. La estimación se realizó a través de los métodos MCMC y el enfoque bayesiano. Los resultados muestran evidencia de una relación no lineal entre las variables de estudio, explicada por el modelo TAR. Además, el análisis indica la existencia de una relación inversa entre el crecimiento de la inversión privada y el crecimiento de la deuda externa del gobierno nacional.

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File URL: http://www.fce.unal.edu.co/media/files/documentos/Cuadernos/51/v28n51_salamanca_2009.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by UN - RCE - CID in its journal REVISTA CUADERNOS DE ECONOMÍA.

Volume (Year): (2009)
Issue (Month): ()
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Handle: RePEc:col:000093:006312

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Keywords: hipótesis de sobreendeudamiento; deuda externa pública; inversión; TAR; enfoque bayesiano; MCMC.;

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