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Do tax cuts generate twin deficits? A multi-country analysis

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  • Martin Boileau
  • Michel Normandin

Abstract

We study the effects of tax shocks on the budget and external deficits for 16 industrialized countries over the post-1970 period. Our structural approach is based on a small open economy model where a tax cut affects the external deficit by two distinct channels. The demographic channel works through the overlapping-generation structure of the model. The forecasting channel works through the dynamic structure of the model. Our empirical analysis documents that tax shocks generate twin deficits, and that both channels play important roles in explaining the positive comovement between the budget and external deficits.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Canadian Economics Association in its journal Canadian Journal of Economics.

Volume (Year): 45 (2012)
Issue (Month): 4 (November)
Pages: 1667-1699

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Handle: RePEc:cje:issued:v:45:y:2012:i:4:p:1667-1699

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  1. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Müller, Gernot, 2007. "Twin Deficits, Openness and the Business Cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 6492, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Boileau, Martin & Normandin, Michel, 2002. "Aggregate employment, real business cycles, and superior information," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 495-520, April.
  3. Bussière, Matthieu & Fratzscher, Marcel & Müller, Gernot J., 2005. "Productivity shocks, budget deficits and the current account," Working Paper Series 0509, European Central Bank.
  4. Gali, Jordi, 1990. "Finite horizons, life-cycle savings, and time-series evidence on consumption," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 433-452, December.
  5. Olivier J. Blanchard, 1984. "Debt, Deficits and Finite Horizons," NBER Working Papers 1389, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Michel Normandin, 1994. "Budget Deficit Persistence and the Twin Deficits Hypothesis," Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers 31, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal.
  7. Giancarlo Corsetti & Gernot J. Müller, 2006. "Twin deficits: squaring theory, evidence and common sense," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 21(48), pages 597-638, October.
  8. Lane, Philip & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, . "External Wealth of Nations," Instructional Stata datasets for econometrics extwealth, Boston College Department of Economics.
  9. Leonardo Bartolini & Amartya Lahiri, 2006. "Twin deficits, twenty years later," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 12(Oct).
  10. Roel Beetsma & Massimo Giuliodori & Franc Klaassen, 2008. "The Effects of Public Spending Shocks on Trade Balances and Budget Deficits in the European Union," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 6(2-3), pages 414-423, 04-05.
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