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Incumbency advantages in the Canadian Parliament

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  • Chad Kendall
  • Marie Rekkas
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    Abstract

    We apply a regression discontinuity approach to determine incumbency advantages in the Canadian Parliament, finding that incumbents enjoy a 9.4-11.2% increased probability of winning over non-incumbents. Owing to the presence of multiple parties, an incumbency advantage in terms of vote share does not always translate to an increased probability of winning, because incumbents do not necessarily obtain votes from their closest opponent. Also, under the assumption that strategic exit is not an issue, we are able to split the incumbency advantage into party incumbency and individual candidate incumbency components, finding that the advantage is almost entirely due to the individual.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Canadian Economics Association in its journal Canadian Journal of Economics.

    Volume (Year): 45 (2012)
    Issue (Month): 4 (November)
    Pages: 1560-1585

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    Handle: RePEc:cje:issued:v:45:y:2012:i:4:p:1560-1585

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    Cited by:
    1. Michael P. Cameron & Patrick Barrett & Bob Stewardson, 2013. "Can Social Media Predict Election Results? Evidence from New Zealand," Working Papers in Economics 13/08, University of Waikato, Department of Economics.
    2. Brandon Schaufele, 2013. "Dissent in Parliament as Reputation Building," Working Papers 1301E, University of Ottawa, Department of Economics.
    3. J. Stephen Ferris, 2012. "Fixed versus Flexible Electoral Cycles," Carleton Economic Papers 12-04, Carleton University, Department of Economics, revised 26 Nov 2012.

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