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Trade frictions and welfare in the gravity model: how much of the iceberg melts?

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  • Edward Balistreri
  • Russell Hillberry

Abstract

A key element missing from the structural gravity literature is an examination of the implied general equilibrium. By design the gravity equation is adept at predicting bilateral trade flows. To make inferences beyond trade flows, however, the theoretic models should be consistent with other observables. Structural econometric estimates from Anderson and van Wincoop (2003) allow us to evaluate their proposed general equilibrium along several dimensions. We find that their gravity model predicts too large a difference between consumer and producer prices; excessive variation in the geographic distribution of consumer price indices; and an exceptionally large portion of output devoted to overcoming trade frictions. Under plausible parameterizations of the model at least 50% of output `melts' in transit.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Canadian Economics Association in its journal Canadian Journal of Economics.

Volume (Year): 39 (2006)
Issue (Month): 1 (February)
Pages: 247-265

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Handle: RePEc:cje:issued:v:39:y:2006:i:1:p:247-265

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Cited by:
  1. Asier Minondo, 2007. "The disappearance of the border barrier in some European Union countries' bilateral trade," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 39(1), pages 119-124.
  2. Kyoji Fukao & Toshihiro Okubo, 2008. "Why Has the Border Effect in the Japanese Machinery Sectors Declined? The Role of Business Networks in East Asian-Machinery Trade," Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series d07-238, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
  3. Chahir Zaki, 2008. "Does trade facilitation matter in bilateral trade ?," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne bla08100, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
  4. Femenia, Fabienne & Gohin, Alexandre, 2007. "Estimating price elasticities of food trade functions: How relevant is the gravity approach?," Working Papers 7211, TRADEAG - Agricultural Trade Agreements.
  5. Wilson, John S. & Mann, Catherine L. & Otsuki, Tsunehiro, 2004. "Assessing the potential benefit of trade facilitation : A global perspective," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3224, The World Bank.
  6. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2004. "Trade Costs," NBER Working Papers 10480, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Balistreri, Edward J. & Hillberry, Russell H., 2007. "Structural estimation and the border puzzle," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 451-463, July.
  8. The University of Iowa & Michael Waugh, 2008. "Bilateral Trade, Relative Prices, and Trade Costs," 2008 Meeting Papers 781, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  9. Anderson, Michael A. & Smith, Stephen L.S., 2007. "How does history matter? Hysteresis in Canadian trade," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 279-291, December.
  10. Cortes, Maria, 2007. "Composition of Trade between Australia and Latin America: Gravity Model," Economics Working Papers wp07-19, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
  11. Wilson,John S. & Mann, Catherine L. & Otsuki, Tsunehiro, 2003. "Trade facilitation and economic development : measuring the impact," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2988, The World Bank.
  12. Fink, Carsten & Mattoo, Aaditya & Neagu, Ileana Cristina, 2002. "Assessing the impact of communication costs on international trade," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2929, The World Bank.
  13. Soloaga, Isidro & Wilson, John S. & Mejia, Alejandro, 2006. "Moving forward faster : trade facilitation reform and Mexican competitiveness," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3953, The World Bank.

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