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Causal effect of early initiation on adolescent smoking patterns

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  • M. Christopher Auld

Abstract

A key concern in policy debates over youth smoking is whether preventing children from smoking will stop them from smoking as adults or merely defer initiation into smoking. This paper estimates determinants of smoking status in late adolescence viewing smoking at age 14 as an endogenous `treatment' on subsequent smoking. This approach disentangles causation from unobserved heterogeneity and allows addictiveness to vary across individuals. Exploiting large tax changes across time and across regions in Canada in the early 1990s, the estimated model suggests that smoking is highly addictive for the average youth but less so for youths who actually do initiate early or who are likely to be induced to initiate early at the margin. Thus, policies that deter initiation will reduce eventual smoking rates, but not by as large a magnitude as conventional econometric models might suggest.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Canadian Economics Association in its journal Canadian Journal of Economics.

Volume (Year): 38 (2005)
Issue (Month): 3 (August)
Pages: 709-734

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Handle: RePEc:cje:issued:v:38:y:2005:i:3:p:709-734

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Cited by:
  1. Christian Volpe Martincus & Jerónimo Carballo, 2010. "Entering New Country and Product Markets: Does Export Promotion Help?," IDB Publications 36738, Inter-American Development Bank.
  2. Anirban Basu & James J. Heckman & Salvador Navarro-Lozano & Sergio Urzua, 2007. "Use of instrumental variables in the presence of heterogeneity and self-selection: an application to treatments of breast cancer patients," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(11), pages 1133-1157.
  3. Anindya Sen, 2009. "Estimating the impacts of household behavior on youth smoking: evidence from Ontario, Canada," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 7(2), pages 189-218, June.
  4. Steven M. Suranovic, 2005. "An Economic Model of Youth Smoking: Tax and Welfare Effects," HEW 0511003, EconWPA.
  5. Anindya Sen & Tony Wirjanto, 2010. "Estimating the impacts of cigarette taxes on youth smoking participation, initiation, and persistence: empirical evidence from Canada," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(11), pages 1264-1280.
  6. David Aristei & Luca Pieroni, 2009. "Addiction, social interactions and gender differences in cigarette consumption," Empirica, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 245-272, August.
  7. Shantanu Bagchi & James Feigenbaum, 2014. "Is Smoking a Fiscal Good?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 17(1), pages 170-190, January.
  8. DeCicca, Philip & Kenkel, Don & Mathios, Alan, 2008. "Cigarette taxes and the transition from youth to adult smoking: Smoking initiation, cessation, and participation," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 904-917, July.

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