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Variable Rational Partisan Business Cycles: theory and some evidence

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  • Jac C. Heckelman

Abstract

The Variable Rational Partisan Business Cycle model is developed, where agents face uncertainty regarding the timing and outcome of the next election. The model predicts that partisan influences on the economy persist throughout the government's rule and are further influenced, in the opposite direction, by which party ruled in the previous period. Party popularity also has a causal effect on the business cycle. Finally, the effects from changes in election timing expectations are dependent on which party ruled in the previous period. Empirical results for output and unemployment in Canada, Germany, and United Kingdom yield mixed support for the model.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Canadian Economics Association in its journal Canadian Journal of Economics.

Volume (Year): 35 (2002)
Issue (Month): 3 (August)
Pages: 568-585

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Handle: RePEc:cje:issued:v:35:y:2002:i:3:p:568-585

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Cited by:
  1. Niklas Potrafke, 2011. "Does government ideology influence budget composition? Empirical evidence from OECD countries," Economics of Governance, Springer, vol. 12(2), pages 101-134, June.
  2. Cameron A. Shelton, 2007. "The Information Content of Elections and Varieties of the Partisan Political Business Cycle," Wesleyan Economics Working Papers 2007-003, Wesleyan University, Department of Economics.
  3. Niklas Potrafke, 2012. "Political cycles and economic performance in OECD countries: empirical evidence from 1951–2006," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 150(1), pages 155-179, January.
  4. Cameron Shelton, 2012. "The information content of elections and varieties of the partisan political business cycle," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 150(1), pages 209-240, January.
  5. Chrétien, Stéphane & Coggins, Frank, 2009. "Election outcomes and financial market returns in Canada," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 1-23, March.
  6. Mechtel, Mario & Potrafke, Niklas, 2009. "Political Cycles in Active Labor Market Policies," MPRA Paper 14270, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Berlemann, Michael & Markwardt, Gunther, 2006. "Variable rational partisan cycles and electoral uncertainty," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 874-886, December.

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