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Variable Rational Partisan Business Cycles: theory and some evidence

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Author Info
Jac C. Heckelman

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Abstract

The Variable Rational Partisan Business Cycle model is developed, where agents face uncertainty regarding the timing and outcome of the next election. The model predicts that partisan influences on the economy persist throughout the government's rule and are further influenced, in the opposite direction, by which party ruled in the previous period. Party popularity also has a causal effect on the business cycle. Finally, the effects from changes in election timing expectations are dependent on which party ruled in the previous period. Empirical results for output and unemployment in Canada, Germany, and United Kingdom yield mixed support for the model.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Canadian Economics Association in its journal Canadian Journal of Economics.

Volume (Year): 35 (2002)
Issue (Month): 3 (August)
Pages: 568-585
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Handle: RePEc:cje:issued:v:35:y:2002:i:3:p:568-585

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Related research
Keywords:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Models of Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

Cited by:
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  1. Cameron A. Shelton, 2007. "The Information Content of Elections and Varieties of the Partisan Political Business Cycle," Wesleyan Economics Working Papers 2007-003, Wesleyan University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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This page was last updated on 2009-12-21.

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