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Les cycles de l’endettement, le dollar et l’économie mondiale

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  • Michel Aglietta
  • Virginie Coudert

Abstract

La position actuelle de l’économie mondiale dans le cycle économique et financier présente des vulnérabilités. D’une part, l’endettement a continué d’augmenter dans les pays avancés, puis dans les pays émergents. D’autre part, le dollar est entré dans un nouveau cycle haussier que la remontée des taux américains devrait accentuer. Ce mouvement a déjà provoqué des fuites de capitaux hors des pays émergents très endettés, déstabilisant leurs taux de change. Le système monétaire international qui reste largement centré sur le dollar, alors même que l’hégémonie de l’économie américaine s’affaiblit, ne peut pas produire les ajustements nécessaires, d’autant moins que la politique monétaire américaine demeure unilatérale. Si aucune coopération ne vient lever ces contradictions, la globalisation financière pourrait reculer.

Suggested Citation

  • Michel Aglietta & Virginie Coudert, 2015. "Les cycles de l’endettement, le dollar et l’économie mondiale," La Lettre du CEPII, CEPII research center, issue 359.
    • Handle: RePEc:cii:cepill:2015-359
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    File URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/lettre/2015/let359.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Thierry Pouch & Aurélie Trouvé, 2018. "Deregulation and the crisis of dairy markets in Europe: facts for economic interpretation," Post-Print hal-02050761, HAL.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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