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Is Trade the Victim of Globalisation?

Author

Listed:
  • Agnès Bénassy-Quéré
  • Yvan Decreux
  • Lionel Fontagné
  • David Khoudour-Castéras

Abstract

The brutal drop in global trade during the last quarter of 2008 and the first months of 2009 has been the subject of much discussion. Some have seen this fall-off, which was considerably steeper than the accompanying decline in production, as a reversal of previous trends. The international fragmentation of supply chains is believed to have sped up the growth of trade during recent years and subsequently led to the current downturn. The globalisation process is thus being held responsible for the collapse of trade. We will show, based on a simulation carried out using the MIRAGE model, that the intensity of trade of intermediate goods on a global scale is not a factor behind the overreaction of trade to the shock suffered by business. This overreaction can instead be explained by short-term factors unique to the crisis that began in the financial sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Yvan Decreux & Lionel Fontagné & David Khoudour-Castéras, 2009. "Is Trade the Victim of Globalisation?," La Lettre du CEPII, CEPII research center, issue 291.
    • Handle: RePEc:cii:cepill:2009-291
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    File URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/lettre/2009/let291ang.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Soledad Zignago, 2010. "Determinantes del comercio internacional en tiempos de crisis," Working Papers 1016, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    TRADE; GLOBALIZATION; MIRAGE;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F20 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - General
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation

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