IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/cii/cepiie/2018-q4-156-9.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Under pressure: Dynamic pass-through of oil prices to the RUB/USD exchange rate

Author

Listed:
  • Svetlana Fedoseeva

Abstract

This paper investigates the relationship between the RUB/USD exchange rate and oil prices. I apply a combination of time-varying cointegration techniques to the data of 1999–2017 to show how this relation evolved dynamically. When the Ruble was not decoupled from oil prices by the efforts of the Central Bank, the pass-through continuously grew over time, both in the long and the short run, substantially increasing during the oil price collapse of 2014. The results further indicate that the Ruble might still be overvalued, implying possible further depreciations, should oil prices remain low.

Suggested Citation

  • Svetlana Fedoseeva, 2018. "Under pressure: Dynamic pass-through of oil prices to the RUB/USD exchange rate," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 156, pages 117-126.
    • Handle: RePEc:cii:cepiie:2018-q4-156-9
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2110701717302524
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Claudiu Albulescu, 2020. "Bank financial stability, bank valuation and international oil prices: Evidence from listed Russian public banks," Papers 2004.12791, arXiv.org.
    2. Yildirim, Zekeriya & Arifli, Arif, 2021. "Oil price shocks, exchange rate and macroeconomic fluctuations in a small oil-exporting economy," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    3. Hashmi, Shabir Mohsin & Chang, Bisharat Hussain & Bhutto, Niaz Ahmed, 2021. "Asymmetric effect of oil prices on stock market prices: New evidence from oil-exporting and oil-importing countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    4. Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu, 2022. "Bank Financial Stability and International Oil Prices: Evidence from Listed Russian Public Banks," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 60(3), pages 217-246, May.
    5. Albulescu, Claudiu Tiberiu & Demirer, Riza & Raheem, Ibrahim D. & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar, 2019. "Does the U.S. economic policy uncertainty connect financial markets? Evidence from oil and commodity currencies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 375-388.
    6. Maghyereh, Aktham & Abdoh, Hussein & Al-Shboul, Mohammad, 2022. "Oil structural shocks, bank-level characteristics, and systemic risk: Evidence from dual banking systems," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 46(4).
    7. Md Fouad Bin Amin & Mohd Ziaur Rehman, 2022. "Asymmetric Linkages of Oil Prices, Money Supply, and TASI on Sectoral Stock Prices in Saudi Arabia: A Non-Linear ARDL Approach," SAGE Open, , vol. 12(1), pages 21582440211, January.
    8. Adekoya, Oluwasegun B. & Oliyide, Johnson A., 2021. "How COVID-19 drives connectedness among commodity and financial markets: Evidence from TVP-VAR and causality-in-quantiles techniques," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    9. Sedrakyan, Gohar Samvel, 2022. "Ukraine war-induced sanctions against Russia: Consequences on transition economies," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 44(5), pages 863-885.
    10. An Cheng & Tonghui Chen & Guogang Jiang & Xinru Han, 2021. "Can Major Public Health Emergencies Affect Changes in International Oil Prices?," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(24), pages 1-13, December.
    11. Balcilar, Mehmet & Usman, Ojonugwa, 2021. "Exchange rate and oil price pass-through in the BRICS countries: Evidence from the spillover index and rolling-sample analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
    12. Balcilar, Mehmet & Roubaud, David & Usman, Ojonugwa & Wohar, Mark E., 2021. "Moving out of the linear rut: A period-specific and regime-dependent exchange rate and oil price pass-through in the BRICS countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    13. Balcilar, Mehmet & Demirer, Rıza & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2019. "Quantile relationship between oil and stock returns: Evidence from emerging and frontier stock markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Oil price; Ruble; Pass-through; Breakpoint analysis; Bounds testing; Time-varying cointegration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • Q31 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Demand and Supply; Prices

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cii:cepiie:2018-q4-156-9. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cepiifr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.