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Oil Prices and Stock Markets: What Drives What in the Gulf Corporation Council Countries

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  • Mohamed Arouri
  • Christophe Rault

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to investigate the relationship between oil prices and stock markets in Gulf Corporation Council (GCC) countries. Using a weekly dataset covering the period from 7 June 2005 to 25 May 2010, we show strong statistical evidence that the causal relationship is consistently bi-directional for Saudi Arabia. Stock market price changes in the other GCC member countries do not Granger cause oil price changes, whereas oil price shocks Granger cause stock price changes. Therefore, investors in GCC stock markets should look at the changes in oil prices, whereas investors in oil markets should look at changes in the Saudi stock market.

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File URL: http://www.cepii.fr/IE/rev122/ei122b.htm
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by CEPII research center in its journal International Economics/Economie Internationale.

Volume (Year): (2010)
Issue (Month): 122 ()
Pages: 41-56

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Handle: RePEc:cii:cepiei:2010-2tb

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Keywords: GCC stock markets; oil prices;

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Cited by:
  1. El Hedi Arouri, Mohamed & Huong Dinh, Thanh & Khuong Nguyen, Duc, 2010. "Time-varying predictability in crude-oil markets: the case of GCC countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(8), pages 4371-4380, August.
  2. Fayyad, Abdallah & Daly, Kevin, 2011. "The impact of oil price shocks on stock market returns: Comparing GCC countries with the UK and USA," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 61-78, March.

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