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La crise monetaire turque de 2000/2001 : une analyse de l’echec du plan de stabilisation par le change du FMI

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Author Info

  • Jerome Hericourt
  • Julien Reynaud

Abstract

Cet article propose un examen empirique de l’echec du Plan de Stabilisation par le Change (PSC) mis en place sous l’impulsion du FMI en Turquie a partir de janvier 2000. Nous estimons un modele vectoriel a correction d’erreur a partir de donnees journalieres, afin d’evaluer statistiquement l’influence des principaux facteurs habituellement mis en cause dans l’echec du PSC turc, au premier rang desquels un secteur bancaire fragilise, un retablissement trop lent des finances publiques et une baisse trop rapide des taux d’interet. Alors que la banque centrale de Turquie n'avait plus aucun instrument autonome pour controler les evolutions monetaires, les resultats soulignent que le programme a cree un arbitrage entre assainissement des finances publiques et stabilite d’un secteur bancaire surexpose aux risques de change et de taux, hypothequant d’emblee tres fortement ses chances de reussite.

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File URL: http://www.cepii.fr/francgraph/publications/ecointern/rev108/rev108a.htm
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by CEPII research center in its journal Economie Internationale.

Volume (Year): (2006)
Issue (Month): 108 ()
Pages: 5-26

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Handle: RePEc:cii:cepiei:2006-4ta

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Related research

Keywords: Crise de change; Plan de Stabilisation par le Change; politique monetaire; Turquie;

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Cited by:
  1. Z. Yejim Giirbiiz & Thomas Jobert & Ruhi Tuncer, 2008. "The Turkish Experience in Inflation Targeting: Uncertainties and the Efficiency of Monetary Policy," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 116, pages 127-146.

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