Overoptimism, Boom-Bust Cycles and Monetary Policy in Small Open Economies
AbstractThis paper analyzes boom-bust cycles in emerging market economies triggered by miss-perception about future productivity. Using a small open economy DSGE model we show that non-materialized news about future productivity improvements (i.e. overoptimism) generate boombust cycles that replicate the stylized facts of several emerging economies during the 1990s. We report simulation results for a boom-bust cycle under alternative monetary policy rules. In this context, we show that if the central bank tries to stabilize output, there would be a large real appreciation of the currency and a deep contraction in the tradable goods sector. When the central bank follows a more strict inflation targeting regime, the boom-bust pattern in major aggregate variables would be exacerbated. Finally, if the central bank attempts to sustain the real exchange rate, the perverse effects on the domestic tradable goods sector are only prevented in the short-run, but the boom-bust cycle in other variables is amplified.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Central Bank of Chile in its journal Economía Chilena.
Volume (Year): 11 (2008)
Issue (Month): 3 (December)
Other versions of this item:
- Manuel Marfán & Juan Pablo Medina & Claudio Soto, 2009. "Overoptimism, Boom-Bust Cycles and Monetary Policy in Small Open Economies," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Carl E. Walsh & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series (ed.), Monetary Policy under Uncertainty and Learning, edition 1, volume 13, chapter 14, pages 563-600 Central Bank of Chile.
- Manuel Marfán & Juan Pablo Medina & Claudio Soto, 2008. "Overoptimism, Boom-Bust Cycles, And Monetary Policy In Small Open Economies," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 510, Central Bank of Chile.
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