IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/cha/ysa001/v1y2008i1p161-182.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Auswirkungen des Klimawandels auf das Produktionsrisiko in der Weizenproduktion - dargestellt am Beispiel dreier bayerischer Standorte

Author

Listed:
  • Markus Gandorfer

    (Technische Universität München)

  • K. Christian Kersebaum

    (Leibniz-Zentrum für Agrarlandschaftsforschung)

Abstract

Die vorliegende Studie beschäftigt sich mit den Auswirkungen des Klimawandels auf das Produktionsrisiko in der Weizenproduktion an drei ausgewählten bayerischen Standorten. Zur Analyse der Auswirkungen möglicher klimatischer Veränderungen auf Naturalerträge bei verschiedenen Stickstoffintensitäten kommt das Pflanzenwachstumsmodell Hermes zur Anwendung. Die Analysen beziehen sich auf Klimaszenarien des ECHAM5-Modells, basierend auf dem Treibhausgas-Emissionsszenario A1B. Die so geschaffene Datengrundlage dient zur Schätzung jährlicher Stickstoffproduktionsfunktionen. Die ökonomische Bewertung findet schließlich auf Basis der Erwartungswerte und Standardabweichungen der Deckungsbeiträge sowie der Analyse der kumulierten Wahrscheinlichkeitsfunktionen der Deckungsbeiträge statt. Weiterhin werden für die verschiedenen Szenarien Sicherheitsäquivalente und Risikoprämien geschätzt. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass an den Standorten Metten und Weihenstephan zukünftig mit Einbussen beim mittleren Deckungsbeitrag sowie mit einem wesentlich höheren Produktionsrisiko gerechnet werden muss. Weiterhin kann für diese Standorte gezeigt werden, dass die Zahlungsbereitschaft für Versicherungsinstrumente ansteigen wird. Am Standort Hof zeigt sich dagegen eine wesentlich stabilere Situation, da sich hier höhere Temperaturen durchaus positiv auf die Weizenproduktion auswirken werden. Technischer Fortschritt und höhere CO2-Konzen-tration werden zusätzlich dazu beitragen, dass der Standort Hof vom Klimawandel profitieren könnte.

Suggested Citation

  • Markus Gandorfer & K. Christian Kersebaum, 2008. "Auswirkungen des Klimawandels auf das Produktionsrisiko in der Weizenproduktion - dargestellt am Beispiel dreier bayerischer Standorte," Journal of Socio-Economics in Agriculture (Until 2015: Yearbook of Socioeconomics in Agriculture), Swiss Society for Agricultural Economics and Rural Sociology, vol. 1(1), pages 161-182.
  • Handle: RePEc:cha:ysa001:v:1:y:2008:i:1:p:161-182
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://archive.jsagr.org/v1/Markus_Gandorfer.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Moschini, Giancarlo & Hennessy, David A., 2001. "Uncertainty, risk aversion, and risk management for agricultural producers," Handbook of Agricultural Economics, in: B. L. Gardner & G. C. Rausser (ed.), Handbook of Agricultural Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 2, pages 88-153, Elsevier.
    2. Chang, Ching-Cheng, 2002. "The potential impact of climate change on Taiwan's agriculture," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 27(1), pages 51-64, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Aurbacher, Joachim & Parker, Phillip S. & Calberto Sánchez, Germán A. & Steinbach, Jennifer & Reinmuth, Evelyn & Ingwersen, Joachim & Dabbert, Stephan, 2013. "Influence of climate change on short term management of field crops – A modelling approach," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 44-57.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Brausmann, Alexandra & Bretschger, Lucas, 2018. "Economic development on a finite planet with stochastic soil degradation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 1-19.
    2. Boncinelli, Fabio & Bartolini, Fabio & Casini, Leonardo, 2018. "Structural factors of labour allocation for farm diversification activities," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 204-212.
    3. Gatti, Nicolas & Cecil, Michael & Baylis, Kathy & Estes, Lyndon & Blekking, Jordan & Heckelei, Thomas & Vergopolan, Noemi & Evans, Tom, 2023. "Is closing the agricultural yield gap a “risky” endeavor?," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
    4. Soltani, Shiva & Mosavi, Seyed Habibollah & Saghaian, Sayed H. & Azhdari, Somayeh & Alamdarlo, Hamed N. & Khalilian, Sadegh, 2023. "Climate change and energy use efficiency in arid and semiarid agricultural areas: A case study of Hamadan-Bahar plain in Iran," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 268(C).
    5. Nancy McCarthy & Gero Carletto & Benjamin Davis & Irini Maltsoglou, 2006. "Assessing the Impact of Massive Out-Migration on Agriculture," Working Papers 06-14, Agricultural and Development Economics Division of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO - ESA).
    6. Jean-Philippe Boussemart & Walter Briec & Christophe Tavera, 2011. "More evidence on technological catching-up in the manufacturing sector," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(18), pages 2321-2330.
    7. Jesse Tack & David Ubilava, 2013. "The effect of El Niño Southern Oscillation on U.S. corn production and downside risk," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 121(4), pages 689-700, December.
    8. Viaggi, Davide & Raggi, Meri & Gomez y Paloma, Sergio, 2011. "Farm-household investment behaviour and the CAP decoupling: Methodological issues in assessing policy impacts," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 127-145, January.
    9. Luisa Menapace & Gregory Colson & Roberta Raffaelli, 2016. "A comparison of hypothetical risk attitude elicitation instruments for explaining farmer crop insurance purchases," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 43(1), pages 113-135.
    10. Femenia, Fabienne, 2010. "Impacts of Stockholding Behaviour on Agricultural Market Volatility: A Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Approach," Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, vol. 59(3).
    11. Nyassoke Titi Gaston Clément & Jules Sadefo-Kamdem & Louis Aimé Fono, 2019. "Dynamic Optimal Hedge Ratio Design when Price and Production are stochastic with Jump," Working Papers hal-02417401, HAL.
    12. Ahmad, Munir & Nawaz, Muhammad & Iqbal, Muhammad & Javed, Sajid, 2014. "Analysing the Impact of Climate Change on Rice Productivity in Pakistan," MPRA Paper 72861, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. van Mellor, Thuy & Alexander, Corinne E. & Bledsoe, Larry & Krupke, Christian, 2006. "An Economic Analysis of Control of the Western Corn Rootworm Variant across Indiana," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21264, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    14. Kung, Chih-Chun & Wu, Tao, 2021. "Influence of water allocation on bioenergy production under climate change: A stochastic mathematical programming approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    15. Brunella Arru & Roberto Furesi & Fabio A. Madau & Pietro Pulina, 2019. "Recreational Services Provision and Farm Diversification: A Technical Efficiency Analysis on Italian Agritourism," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-15, February.
    16. Catarina Roseta‐Palma & Yiğit Sağlam, 2019. "Downside risk in reservoir management," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 63(2), pages 328-353, April.
    17. Breen, Benjamin & Hennessy, Thia & Donnellan, Trevor & Hanrahan, Kevin, 2013. "Tools and polices for agricultural risk management," 87th Annual Conference, April 8-10, 2013, Warwick University, Coventry, UK 158686, Agricultural Economics Society.
    18. Liu, Xuan & van Kooten, Gerrit Cornelis & Duan, Jun, 2020. "Calibration of agricultural risk programming models using positive mathematical programming," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 64(3), July.
    19. Di Falco, Salvatore & Perrings, Charles, 2005. "Crop biodiversity, risk management and the implications of agricultural assistance," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(4), pages 459-466, December.
    20. Severen, Christopher & Costello, Christopher & Deschênes, Olivier, 2018. "A Forward-Looking Ricardian Approach: Do land markets capitalize climate change forecasts?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 235-254.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Klimawandel; Winterweizen; Risikoanalyse; Pflanzenwachstumsmodell;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q1 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cha:ysa001:v:1:y:2008:i:1:p:161-182. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Simon Briner (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://jsagr.org .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.