IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ces/ifosdt/v66y2013i20p03-60.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Economy Picking Up – Put Budget Surpluses To Good Use

Author

Listed:
  • Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose

Abstract

On 17 October 2013 the economic institutes of the Joint Economic Forecast Project Group presented their autumn forecast to the press in Berlin. The institutes believe that the German economy is on the verge of a recovery driven by domestic demand. The improving global economic climate and decreasing uncertainty are fuelling investment. Private consumption is benefitting from favourable employment and income prospects. Real gross domestic product looks set to grow by 1.8 percent in 2014, after an increase of just 0.4 percent this year. Consumer prices are expected to rise by a moderate 1.6 percent this year and by 1.9 percent next year. The German public budget will continue to show a surplus.

Suggested Citation

  • Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose, 2013. "Economy Picking Up – Put Budget Surpluses To Good Use," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 66(20), pages 03-60, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:66:y:2013:i:20:p:03-60
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ifo.de/DocDL/ifosd_2013_20_1.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Brücker, Herbert & Bertoli, Simone & Fernández-Huertas Moraga, Jesús, 2013. "The European Crisis and Migration to Germany: Expectations and the Diversion of Migration Flows," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79693, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    2. Carsten-Patrick Meier, 2013. "Deutlicher Anstieg der Nettozuwanderung nach Deutschland," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 93(7), pages 466-470, July.
    3. Francesca D'Auria & Cécile Denis & Karel Havik & Kieran Mc Morrow & Christophe Planas & Rafal Raciborski & Werner Roger & Alessandro Rossi, 2010. "The production function methodology for calculating potential growth rates and output gaps," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 420, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    4. Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose, 2013. "German Economy Recovering - Long-Term Appproach Needed to Economic Policy," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 66(08), pages 03-77, April.
    5. Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose, 2011. "Joint Economic Forecast – Autumn 2011: Economic Upswing in Germany – Adverse Effects on the German Economy from the European Debt Crisis," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 64(20), pages 03-71, October.
    6. Andreas Bergh & Magnus Henrekson, 2011. "Government Size And Growth: A Survey And Interpretation Of The Evidence," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(5), pages 872-897, December.
    7. Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose, 2013. "Deutsche Konjunktur erholt sich – Wirtschaftspolitik stärker an der langen Frist ausrichten," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 20(03), pages 10-13, June.
    8. Buch, Claudia M. & Körner, Tobias & Weigert, Benjamin, 2013. "Towards Deeper Financial Integration in Europe: What the Banking Union Can Contribute," IWH Discussion Papers 13/2013, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    9. Herbert Brücker & Philipp J. H. Schröder, 2012. "International Migration With Heterogeneous Agents: Theory and Evidence for Germany, 1967–2009," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(2), pages 152-182, February.
    10. Karl Brenke & Kai-Uwe Müller, 2013. "Gesetzlicher Mindestlohn: kein verteilungspolitisches Allheilmittel," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 80(39), pages 3-17.
    11. Döhrn, Roland & Gebhardt, Heinz, 2013. "Die fiskalischen Kosten der Finanz- und Wirtschaftskrise," IBES Diskussionsbeiträge 198, University of Duisburg-Essen, Institute of Business and Economic Studie (IBES).
    12. Jeffrey R. Campbell & Charles L. Evans & Jonas D.M. Fisher & Alejandro Justiniano, 2012. "Macroeconomic Effects of Federal Reserve Forward Guidance," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 43(1 (Spring), pages 1-80.
    13. Afonso, António & Furceri, Davide, 2010. "Government size, composition, volatility and economic growth," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 517-532, December.
    14. Michael Fertig, 2001. "The economic impact of EU-enlargement: assessing the migration potential," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 26(4), pages 707-720.
    15. Zaiceva, Anzelika, 2006. "Reconciling the Estimates of Potential Migration into the Enlarged European Union," IZA Discussion Papers 2519, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    16. Gebhardt, Heinz & Möhring, Niklas, 2013. "Länderfinanzen 2012: Konsolidierungserfolge bei vielen Ländern," RWI Konjunkturberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, vol. 64(2), pages 35-44.
    17. Giavazzi, Francesco & Alesina, Alberto & Favero, Carlo A., 2012. "The output effect of fiscal consolidations," CEPR Discussion Papers 9105, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    18. Oliver Holtemöller & Tobias Knedlik, 2011. "Prävention und Management von Staatsinsolvenzen in der Europäischen Währungsunion," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 91(3), pages 173-178, March.
    19. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Michael Woodford, 2003. "The Zero Bound on Interest Rates and Optimal Monetary Policy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(1), pages 139-235.
    20. C. Katharina Spieß, 2013. "Investitionen in Bildung: frühkindlicher Bereich hat großes Potential," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 80(26), pages 40-47.
    21. Uwe Kunert & Heike Link, 2013. "Verkehrsinfrastruktur: Substanzerhaltung erfordert deutlich höhere Investitionen," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 80(26), pages 32-38.
    22. Brautzsch, Hans-Ulrich & Schultz, Birgit, 2013. "Aktuelle Trends: Jeder vierte Beschäftigte in Ostdeutschland verdiente im Jahr 2011 weniger als 8,50 Euro je Stunde," Wirtschaft im Wandel, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), vol. 19(2), pages 23-23.
    23. Stefan Bach & Peter Haan & Richard Ochmann, 2013. "Reformvorschläge zur Einkommensteuer: mehr echte und weniger kalte Progression," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 80(30), pages 3-12.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Holtemöller, Oliver & Lindner, Axel & Drygalla, Andrej, 2013. "Internationale Konjunkturprognose und konjunkturelle Stressszenarien für die Jahre 2013 bis 2015," IWH Online 6/2013, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    2. Arno Städtler, 2013. "Investments Continue to Decline in 2013 – Leasing Business Stagnates, 2014: Growth in Sight," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 66(23), pages 68-78, December.
    3. Alexander Eck & Johannes Steinbrecher, 2014. "Aktualisierung der Einnahmeprojektion für den Freistaat Sachsen – Erneut höhere Einnahmen im Ausgangsjahr," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 21(01), pages 33-35, February.
    4. Arno Städtler, 2014. "Investments Clearly on Growth Path – Leasing Climate Improves Significantly," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 67(06), pages 36-39, March.
    5. Christian Breuer, 2014. "Tax Revenue, Minimum Wage and the "Bracket Creep" in the Income-tax Structure," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 67(11), pages 38-42, June.
    6. Thomas Strobel & Arno Städler, 2014. "Halt to Downward Trend in Equipment Investment – Strong Growth Expected in 2014," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 67(01), pages 52-54, January.
    7. Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose, 2014. "Joint Economic Forecast Spring 2014: Upturn in German Economy, but Economic Policy Creates Headwind," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 67(08), pages 03-64, April.
    8. Thomas Strobel, 2015. "Weak Investment and the Tertiarisation of Germany’s Economic Structure," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 68(01), pages 43-49, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose, 2013. "Gemeinschaftsdiagnose Herbst 2013," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 80(43), pages 3-77.
    2. Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose, 2013. "German Economy Recovering - Long-Term Appproach Needed to Economic Policy," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 66(08), pages 03-77, April.
    3. Bofinger, Peter & Buch, Claudia M. & Feld, Lars P. & Schmidt, Christoph M. & Wieland, Volker, 2013. "Gegen eine rückwärtsgewandte Wirtschaftspolitik. Jahresgutachten 2013/14 [Against a backward-looking economic policy. Annual Report 2013/14]," Annual Economic Reports / Jahresgutachten, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung, volume 127, number 201314.
    4. Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose, 2014. "Joint Economic Forecast Spring 2014: Upturn in German Economy, but Economic Policy Creates Headwind," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 67(08), pages 03-64, April.
    5. Roland Döhrn & György Barabas & Heinz Gebhardt & Tobias Kitlinksi & Martin Micheli & Simeon Vosen & Lina Zwick, 2013. "Die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung im Inland: Binnennachfrage trägt Aufschwung," RWI Konjunkturbericht, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, pages 64, 09.
    6. Döhrn, Roland & Barabas, György & Gebhardt, Heinz & Kitlinski, Tobias & Micheli, Martin & Vosen, Simeon & Zwick, Lina, 2013. "Die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung im Inland: Binnennachfrage trägt Aufschwung," RWI Konjunkturberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, vol. 64(3), pages 41-103.
    7. George-Marios Angeletos & Chen Lian, 2018. "Forward Guidance without Common Knowledge," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(9), pages 2477-2512, September.
    8. Swanson, Eric T., 2021. "Measuring the effects of federal reserve forward guidance and asset purchases on financial markets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 32-53.
    9. Mitsuru Katagiri, 2016. "Forward Guidance as a Monetary Policy Rule," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 16-E-6, Bank of Japan.
    10. Mariano Kulish & James Morley & Tim Robinson, 2014. "Estimating the expected duration of the zero lower bound in DSGE models with forward guidance," Discussion Papers 2014-32, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    11. Jeffrey R. Campbell & Thomas B. King & Anna Orlik & Rebecca Zarutskie, 2020. "Issues Regarding the Use of the Policy Rate Tool," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-070, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    12. Barthélemy, Jean & Mengus, Eric, 2018. "The signaling effect of raising inflation," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 488-516.
    13. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/713kqq1pgu80lr8fn0lsuuh8lf is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Bianchi, Francesco & Melosi, Leonardo & Rottner, Matthias, 2021. "Hitting the elusive inflation target," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 107-122.
    15. Bassetto, Marco, 2019. "Forward guidance: Communication, commitment, or both?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 69-86.
    16. Goy, Gavin & Hommes, Cars & Mavromatis, Kostas, 2022. "Forward guidance and the role of central bank credibility under heterogeneous beliefs," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 1240-1274.
    17. Silvia Miranda-Agrippino, 2015. "Unsurprising Shocks: Information, Premia, and the Monetary Transmission," Discussion Papers 1613, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM), revised Apr 2016.
    18. Erceg, Christopher J. & Jakab, Zoltan & Lindé, Jesper, 2021. "Monetary policy strategies for the European Central Bank," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    19. Mariusz Kapuściński, 2017. "Monetary policy and financial asset prices in Poland," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 48(3), pages 263-294.
    20. Richard H. Clarida, 2019. "The Federal Reserve's Review of Its Monetary Policy Strategy, Tools, and Communication Practices : a speech at the \"Fed Listens: Distributional Consequences of the Cycle and Monetary Policy\&quo," Speech 1054, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    21. Hess Chung & Etienne Gagnon & Taisuke Nakata & Matthias Paustian & Bernd Schlusche & James Trevino & Diego Vilán & Wei Zheng, 2020. "Monetary Policy Options at the Effective Lower Bound: Assessing the Federal Reserve’s Current Policy Toolkit," CARF F-Series CARF-F-483, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F00 - International Economics - - General - - - General
    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:66:y:2013:i:20:p:03-60. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Klaus Wohlrabe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ifooode.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.