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Eurokrise, Energiewende, Konjunkturabkühlung: Ende des deutschen Jobwunders?

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Author Info

  • Dieter Hundt
  • Frank-Jürgen Weise
  • Hagen Lesch
  • Wolfgang Lechthaler
  • Christian Merkl

Abstract

Welche Determinanten sind für das »deutsche Jobwunder« verantwortlich? Dieter Hundt, Bundesvereinigung der Deutschen Arbeitgeberverbände, sieht hinter dem Erfolg das verantwortliche Handeln der Tarifpartner, die Nutzung von Arbeitszeitkonten und richtige politische Entscheidungen etwa beim Kurzarbeitergeld. Dies zeige, dass die Tarifautonomie in Deutschland selbst unter extremen Bedingungen gut funktioniert. Frank-Jürgen Weise, Bundesagentur für Arbeit, Nürnberg, geht davon aus, dass es auch 2012 noch eine positive Entwicklung am Arbeitsmarkt geben wird und die Arbeitslosenzahl unter der Marke von 3 Millionen bleibt. Die gute Arbeitsmarktentwicklung lässt sich nach Ansicht von Hagen Lesch, Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft Köln, auf drei Einflüsse zurückführen: auf das Horten von Arbeitskräften während der Krise, auf eine moderate Lohnpolitik und auf die Arbeitsmarktreformen der Jahre 2003 bis 2005. Wolfgang Lechthaler, Institut für Weltwirtschaft, und Christian Merkl, Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg, erwarten, unter der Bedingung einer glaubwürdigen Haushaltskonsolidierung in Südeuropa bei gleichzeitiger Reduktion der Leistungsbilanzdefizite, nur moderate rezessive Schocks für Deutschland. Der deutsche Arbeitsmarkt verfüge über die Voraussetzungen, um einen sanften Abschwung zu absorbieren.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich in its journal ifo Schnelldienst.

Volume (Year): 65 (2012)
Issue (Month): 01 (01)
Pages: 03-13

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Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:65:y:2012:i:01:p:03-13

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Related research

Keywords: Arbeitsmarkt; Arbeitsmarktflexibilität; Deutschland;

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References

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  1. Jens Boysen-Hogrefe & Dominik Groll, 2010. "The German Labour Market Miracle," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 214(1), pages R38-R50, October.
  2. Tito Boeri & Herbert Bruecker, 2011. "Short‐time work benefits revisited: some lessons from the Great Recession," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 26(68), pages 697-765, October.
  3. Gabriel J. Felbermayr & Mario Larch & Wolfgang Lechthaler, 2009. "Unemployment in an Interdependent World," CESifo Working Paper Series 2788, CESifo Group Munich.
  4. Burda, Michael C & Hunt, Jennifer, 2011. "What Explains the German Labor Market Miracle in the Great Recession?," CEPR Discussion Papers 8520, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Ester Faia & Wolfgang Lechthaler & Christian Merkl, 2010. "Fiscal Multipliers and the Labour Market in the Open Economy," Kiel Working Papers 1592, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  6. Lechthaler, Wolfgang & Merkl, Christian & Snower, Dennis J., 2010. "Monetary persistence and the labor market: A new perspective," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 968-983, May.
  7. Nikolai Stähler & Carlos Thomas, 2011. "FiMod - a DSGE model for fiscal policy simulations," Banco de España Working Papers 1110, Banco de España.
  8. Jens Boysen-Hogrefe & Dominik Groll & Wolfgang Lechthaler & Christian Merkl, 2010. "The Role of Labor Market Institutions in the Great Recession," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 61(Supplemen), pages 65-88.
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