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In the Maelstrom of World Recession

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  • Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose

Abstract

Am 23. April 2009 stellte die Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose in Berlin ihr Frühjahrsgutachten der Presse vor. Ihrer Ansicht nach befindet sich die Weltwirtschaft im Frühjahr 2009 in der tiefsten Rezession seit der Großen Depression. Der Abschwung verschärfte sich im Herbst zu einem regelrechten Einbruch, der rasch nahezu alle Länder der Welt erfasste. Auch umfangreiche staatliche Programme zur Stützung des Finanzsektors und zur Belebung der Konjunktur konnten bislang das Vertrauen der Akteure in die zukünftige wirtschaftliche Entwicklung nicht wieder herstellen. Die Stärke des Abschwungs im Winterhalbjahr 2008/09 erklärt sich so auch daraus, dass die Produktion nahezu überall auf der Welt gleichzeitig auf Talfahrt war. Unter den Industrieländern waren von dieser Entwicklung Japan und Deutschland, deren Wirtschaften eine hohe Exportabhängigkeit aufweisen, besonders stark betroffen. Deutliche Hinweise auf ein Ende des Einbruchs sind bislang noch nicht erkennbar, auch wenn einige Indikatoren darauf hindeuten, dass Produktion und Nachfrage in den kommenden Monaten langsamer abnehmen werden. Alles in allem rechnen die Institute damit, dass die Produktion in den Industrieländern 2009 mit einer Rate von 4,2% drastisch zurückgeht, 2010 fällt sie nochmals geringfügig. Dabei nimmt die Arbeitslosigkeit massiv zu, und die Produktionslücke wird am Ende des Prognosezeitraums erheblich sein. Die deutsche Wirtschaft befindet sich im Frühjahr 2009 in der tiefsten Rezession seit der Gründung der Bundesrepublik. Als Folge der Zuspitzung der internationalen Finanzkrise im vergangenen Herbst hat sich der globale Abschwung dramatisch verschärft. Dadurch ist die weltweite Nachfrage nach Investitionsgütern eingebrochen, und dies hat die Exportindustrie, die treibende Kraft hinter dem vergangenen Aufschwung, extrem hart getroffen.

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  • Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose, 2009. "In the Maelstrom of World Recession," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 62(08), pages 03-81, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:62:y:2009:i:08:p:03-81
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    Cited by:

    1. Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose, 2009. "Hesitant Recovery, Growing Government Indebtedness," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 62(20), pages 03-64, October.
    2. Gerhard Bosch, 2011. "The German Labour Market after the Financial Crisis: Miracle or Just a Good Policy Mix?," Chapters, in: Daniel Vaughan-Whitehead (ed.), Work Inequalities in the Crisis, chapter 6, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    3. Alexander Herzog-Stein & Ines Zapf, 2014. "Navigating the Great Recession," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 67(3), pages 891-925, July.
    4. Kai Carstensen & Steffen Henzel & Johannes Mayr & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2009. "IFOCAST: Methods of the Ifo short-term forecast," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 62(23), pages 15-28, December.
    5. aus dem Moore, Nils & Kambeck, Rainer & Kasten, Tanja, 2009. "Auswirkungen der Steuerprogramme zur Bundestagswahl 2009: Eine mikrodatenbasierte Analyse der Reformvorschläge von CDU/CSU, SPD und FDP," RWI Materialien 55, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung.
    6. Alexander Herzog-Stein & Gustav A. Horn & Ulrike Stein, 2013. "Macroeconomic Implications of the German Short-time Work Policy during the Great Recession," Global Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 4, pages 30-40, July.
    7. Boss, Achim & Boss, Alfred & Boss, Thomas, 2009. "Das Lohnsteueraufkommen in Deutschland: Erklärung und Prognose auf Basis der Lohnsteuerstatistik," Kiel Working Papers 1522, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    8. Gustav A. Horn & Katharina Dröge & Simon Sturn & Till van Treeck & Rudolf Zwiener, 2009. "Von der Finanzkrise zur Weltwirtschaftskrise (III)," IMK Report 41-2009, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    9. Berg Tim Oliver, 2015. "Time Varying Fiscal Multipliers in Germany," Review of Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 66(1), pages 13-46, April.
    10. Johannes Steinbrecher & Christian Thater & Marcel Thum & Oskar Krohmer, 2010. "Langfristige Prognose der Einnahmeentwicklung für den Landeshaushalt des Freistaates Sachsen bis zum Jahr 2025 : Gutachten im Auftrag des Sächsischen Staatsministeriums der Finanzen," ifo Dresden Studien, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 57, July.
    11. Alexander Eck & Joachim Ragnitz & Johannes Steinbrecher & Christian Thater, 2011. "Haushaltskonsolidierung, Infrastruktur und Standortwettbewerb : Gutachten im Auftrag des Bayerischen Staatsministeriums für Wirtschaft, Infrastruktur, Verkehr und Technologie," ifo Dresden Studien, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 58, July.
    12. Rietzler, Katja & Truger, Achim, 2018. "Is the debt brake behind Germany's successful fiscal consolidation?," IPE Working Papers 105/2018, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).
    13. Boss, Alfred, 2011. "Zum Einfluss der Konjunkturpakete auf die Investitionen des Staates," Kiel Insight 2011.7, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    14. repec:zbw:rwimat:055 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Suntum Ulrich van & Ilgmann Cordelius, 2009. "Das Bilanzproblem der Banken – Ein Lösungsvorschlag / The bank‘s balance sheet problems: a proposal for a solution," ORDO. Jahrbuch für die Ordnung von Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft, De Gruyter, vol. 60(1), pages 223-246, January.
    16. Wolfgang Nierhaus & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2016. "ifo Konjunkturumfragen und Konjunkturanalyse: Band II," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 72.
    17. Pohl Rüdiger, 2009. "Krisenbewältigung und Krisenvermeidung: Lehren aus der Finanzkrise / Crisis resolution and future crisis prevention: lessons from the recent financial crisis," ORDO. Jahrbuch für die Ordnung von Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft, De Gruyter, vol. 60(1), pages 289-316, January.
    18. Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose, 2010. "The Recovery Continues - Considerable Risks Remain," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 63(08), pages 03-78, April.
    19. Nils aus dem Moore & Rainer Kambeck & Tanja Kasten, 2009. "Auswirkungen der Steuerprogramme zur Bundestagswahl 2009 – Eine mikrodatenbasierte Analyse der Reformvorschläge von CDU/CSU, SPD und FDPs," RWI Materialien, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, pages 42, December.

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    JEL classification:

    • F00 - International Economics - - General - - - General
    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General

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