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Higher participation rates for women and a retirement age of 67 as could stabilise the labour supply - model computations for Germany to 2050

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  • Eckart Bomsdorf

Abstract

The discussion regarding demographic change in Germany focuses mainly on absolute population levels or the ratio between young and old. It is also worth looking at the development of the total amount of the working age population. Eckart Bomsdorf, University of Cologne, has analysed demographic change in Germany up to 2050 in terms of the potential labour force and has conducted model computations using various assumptions as to fertility, migration and mortality. For the development of the number of people in employment, changes in the female participation rate have also been examined. The results show that both an increase in the statutory retirement age as well as a higher female participation rate could help bridge the gaps that will arise in the labour force from demographic change. Without a retirement age of 67 as well as a higher female participation rate, not only the number of gainfully employmed but also their share in the population as a whole - the labour force participation rate - will sink to a level that the country will not be able to afford.

Suggested Citation

  • Eckart Bomsdorf, 2008. "Higher participation rates for women and a retirement age of 67 as could stabilise the labour supply - model computations for Germany to 2050," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 61(13), pages 11-21, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:61:y:2008:i:13:p:11-21
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Babel, Bernhard & Bomsdorf, Eckart, 2007. "Muss die Bevölkerung in Deutschland schrumpfen?," Wirtschaftsdienst – Zeitschrift für Wirtschaftspolitik (1949 - 2007), ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 87(6), pages 391-396.
    2. Bomsdorf, Eckart & Babel, Bernhard, 2005. "Wie viel Fertilität und Migration braucht Deutschland?," Wirtschaftsdienst – Zeitschrift für Wirtschaftspolitik (1949 - 2007), ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 85(6), pages 387-394.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kristin Woltering, 2014. "Modell, Annahmen und Ergebnisse einer nach Migrationshintergrund differenzierten Bevölkerungsvorausberechnung für Bayern bis 2022," AStA Wirtschafts- und Sozialstatistisches Archiv, Springer;Deutsche Statistische Gesellschaft - German Statistical Society, vol. 8(1), pages 49-79, June.

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    1. Eckart Bomsdorf & Bernhard Babel, 2008. "Bevölkerungsentwicklung in Sachsen bis 2040 : Modellrechnungen und regressionsanalytische Sensitivitätsbetrachtungen," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 15(02), pages 19-28, 04.
    2. Eckart Bomsdorf, 2010. "Rückgang der Bevölkerung – Zunahme der Pflegefälle Divergierende Entwicklungen in Deutschland bis 2050," AStA Wirtschafts- und Sozialstatistisches Archiv, Springer;Deutsche Statistische Gesellschaft - German Statistical Society, vol. 4(1), pages 3-18, June.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • J16 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Gender; Non-labor Discrimination

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