New housing completions in Europe: Coming down slowly from the summit

In mid-June, representatives of institutes of the research and advisory network Euroconstruct, met for their summer conference in Prague. This article focuses on the development of the new residential construction sector in the 15 western and 4 central European countries in Euroconstruct. In 2006, about half of the aggregated construction volume of the 19 countries, ca. €670 billion, went for housing construction. In 2007 a forecast 2.6 million housing units will be completed in newly constructed buildings. Thereafter, this record number of housing completions will not be matched but will still remain at a high level with more than 2.5 million housing unit completions forecast for 2009. Whereas in 2003 about the same number of housing units were built in single-family homes and in multiple-family buildings, the latter category has expanded and will peak out in 2007 at 1.55 million units; the decline thereafter up to 2009 will be modest. A breakdown according to countries reveals the great variety of the housing market in Europe. Especially noticeable are the differences in housing construction intensity, i.e. the number of completed new housing units per 1,000 inhabitants. In Ireland and Spain this indicator has reached a record level at nearly 21 and about 17 respectively; in Germany the indicator showed only 2.6 new housing units per 1,000 inhabitants. Up to 2009 the housing construction intensity in Germany should increase somewhat but even then Germany and the Czech Republic will be quite alone at the bottom of the list. Germany's share of new housing completions in the Euroconstruct area in 2009 at nearly 10 percent will remain far behind its share of population in the area (more than 18 percent) and of GDP (nearly 20 percent).