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A comparison of time series for producer prices and the price expectations in manufacturing in the Ifo Business Survey

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  • Klaus Abberger

Abstract

In its monthly business survey, the Ifo Institute asks the participating firms about likely changes in domestic prices in the coming three months. These results of the Ifo Business Survey on price expectations of the surveyed businesses provide a suitable leading indicator for producer prices in manufacturing, since the Ifo time series show a similar cyclical progression to producer-price time series. The cyclical component of the survey results has an average lead of about four months ahead of producer prices and gives an early indication of the cyclical turning points, as a rule.

Suggested Citation

  • Klaus Abberger, 2005. "A comparison of time series for producer prices and the price expectations in manufacturing in the Ifo Business Survey," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 58(14), pages 50-51, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:58:y:2005:i:14:p:50-51
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    File URL: https://www.ifo.de/DocDL/ifosd_2005_14_5.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michael ARTIS & Massimiliano MARCELLINO & Tommaso PROIETTI, 2002. "Dating the Euro Area Business Cycle," Economics Working Papers ECO2002/24, European University Institute.
    2. Georg Goldrian, 2005. "Comment on the informative value of growth rates," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 58(13), pages 47-48, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Robert Lehmann, 2023. "The Forecasting Power of the ifo Business Survey," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 19(1), pages 43-94, March.

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    JEL classification:

    • L60 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - General

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