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The State of the World Economy and the German Economy in Spring 2004

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  • Arbeitsgemeinschaft deutscher wirtschaftswissenschaftlicher Forschungsinstitute

Abstract

Am 27. April 2004 stellten die sechs Wirtschaftsforschungsinstitute in Berlin ihr Frühjahrsgutachten der Presse vor. Sie kamen zu der Ansicht, dass sich die Weltwirtschaft im Aufschwung befindet. Seit Mitte 2003 expandiert die Produktion in vielen Ländern ausgesprochen kräftig, und die Kapazitätsauslastung steigt. Der Aufschwung hat mit Nordamerika und Ostasien zwei Zentren. Die Investitionsdynamik wurde von der Geldpolitik begünstigt: Die US-Notenbank und die Bank von Japan, aber auch die Europäische Zentralbank sind seit geraumer Zeit auf expansivem Kurs. Die Fremdkapitalkosten sind, auch in realer Rechnung, weltweit niedrig. Bei alledem haben sich die Absatzperspektiven aufgehellt. Nach kräftiger Expansion in der ersten Hälfte dieses Jahres wird sich der Aufschwung in den Wachstumszentren mit dem Abklingen der wirtschaftspolitischen Impulse etwas abschwächen.

Suggested Citation

  • Arbeitsgemeinschaft deutscher wirtschaftswissenschaftlicher Forschungsinstitute, 2004. "The State of the World Economy and the German Economy in Spring 2004," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 57(08), pages 03-46, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:57:y:2004:i:08:p:03-46
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    Cited by:

    1. Josef Lachner, 2004. "Diverging trends in German wholesaling," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 57(11), pages 24-29, June.
    2. Hans-Dieter Karl, 2004. "Metal processing trades can hope for recovery," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 57(10), pages 18-26, May.
    3. Eckhard Hein & Thorsten Niechoj, 2005. "Guidelines for sustained growth in the EU ? The concept and consequences of the Broad Economic Policy Guidelines," IMK Working Paper 02-2005, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    4. Manuel Birnbrich, 2004. "Retailing: Hopes for an upswing disappointed – investment activity continues to shrink," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 57(14), pages 24-27, July.
    5. Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Hammermann, Felix & Schweickert, Rainer & Vinhas de Souza, Lúcio, 2004. "European monetary integration after EU enlargement," Kiel Discussion Papers 413, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    6. Eckhard Hein & Achim Truger, 2005. "Macroeconomic policies, wage developments, and Germany’s stagnation," Macroeconomics 0508015, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Joachim Gürtler & Arno Städtler, 2004. "Leasing: Business climate yields clearly - regeneration of aggregate equipment investment is still down the road," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 57(22), pages 36-39, November.
    8. Hans‐Werner Sinn, 2006. "Das deutsche Rätsel: Warum wir Exportweltmeister und Schlusslicht zugleich sind," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 7(1), pages 1-18, February.
    9. Eckhard Hein & Achim Truger, 2007. "Germany’s Post-2000 Stagnation in the European Context — a Lesson in Macroeconomic Mismanagement," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Philip Arestis & Eckhard Hein & Edwin Heron (ed.), Aspects of Modern Monetary and Macroeconomic Policies, chapter 12, pages 223-247, Palgrave Macmillan.
    10. Sinn, Hans-Werner, 2006. "Das deutsche Rätsel," Munich Reprints in Economics 950, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    11. Manuel Birnbrich, 2004. "Großhandel: Trotz Umsatzwachstum weiterhin zurückhaltende Investitionsplanungen," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 57(15), pages 30-33, August.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F00 - International Economics - - General - - - General
    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General

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