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The State of the World Economy and the German Economy in Autumn 2002

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  • Arbeitsgemeinschaft deutscher wirtschaftswissenschaftlicher Forschungsinstitute

Abstract

Am 22. Oktober stellten die sechs Wirtschaftsforschungsinstitute in Berlin ihr Herbstgutachten der Presse vor. Sie kamen zu der Ansicht, dass sich die Weltwirtschaft derzeit in einer fragilen Lage befindet. Die Unsicherheit über den Fortgang der Konjunktur hat sich unter dem Eindruck des Irak-Konfliktes, des damit verbundenen Anstiegs der Ölpreise und des Kurssturzes an den Aktienmärkten deutlich erhöht. In den USA flachte die Expansion seit dem Frühjahr wieder ab, und auch in den ostasiatischen Schwellenländern hat sich der zuvor kräftige Produktionsanstieg zuletzt verringert. Im Euroraum hat sich die Konjunktur zwar erholt, jedoch bleibt die Dynamik gering. In Japan schließlich nahm das reale Bruttoinlandsprodukt nur verhalten zu.

Suggested Citation

  • Arbeitsgemeinschaft deutscher wirtschaftswissenschaftlicher Forschungsinstitute, 2002. "The State of the World Economy and the German Economy in Autumn 2002," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 55(20), pages 3-50, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:55:y:2002:i:20:p:3-50
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Frank Westermann, 2003. "The credit crunch: A comparison between Japan and Germany," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 56(01), pages 33-37, January.
    2. Weinert, Gunter & Wohlers, Eckhardt & Bruck, Christiane & Fieber, Eva-Ulrike & Hinze, Jorg & Kirchesch, Kai & Matthies, Klaus & Schumacher, Christian, 2003. "Zwischen Hoffen und Bangen - Konjunktur 2003," Report Series 26082, Hamburg Institute of International Economics.
    3. Eckhard Hein & Achim Truger, 2005. "What ever happened to Germany? Is the decline of the former european key currency country caused by structural sclerosis or by macroeconomic mismanagement?," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(1), pages 3-28.
    4. Erich Langmantel, 2002. "Balance of payments on current account in the black for the first time since German unification," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 55(11), pages 40-41, June.
    5. Truger, Achim & Jacoby, Wade, 2002. "Tax Reforms and "Modell Deutschland": Lessons from Four Years of Red-Green Tax-Policy," Institute of European Studies, Working Paper Series qt31866224, Institute of European Studies, UC Berkeley.
    6. Manegold, Dirk, 2003. "Aspekte Gemeinsamer Agrarpolitik 2002," German Journal of Agricultural Economics, Humboldt-Universitaet zu Berlin, Department for Agricultural Economics, vol. 52(01), pages 1-19.
    7. Lehment, Harmen & Oskamp, Frank, 2004. "Gesamtwirtschaftliche Bedingungen für einen Anstieg des Arbeitsvolumens in Deutschland," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 3216, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    8. Weinert, Günter, 2003. "Zwischen Hoffen und Bangen - Konjunktur 2003," HWWA Reports 224, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWA).
    9. Wolff, Joachim, 2004. "The Duration of New Job Matches in East and West Germany," Discussion Papers in Economics 360, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    10. Nicola Fuchs-Schuendeln, 2005. "Adjustment to a Large Shock - Do Households Smooth Low Frequency Consumption?," 2005 Meeting Papers 517, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    11. Rosenschon, Astrid, 2002. "Finanzhilfen der Bundesländer: eine Aktualisierung," Kiel Working Papers 1127, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    12. Christian Holzner & Wolfgang Ochel & Martin Werding, 2003. "Vom OFFENSIV-Gesetz zur "Aktivierenden Sozialhilfe" : Ein Konzept zur Reform der Arbeitsmarkt- und Sozialpolitik als Beitrag zu mehr Beschäftigung und Wachstum ; Studie im Auftrag der hessis," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 17.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F00 - International Economics - - General - - - General
    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General

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