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Forecast 2002/2003. Chances for a new upswing

Author

Listed:
  • Wolfgang Nierhaus
  • Wolfgang Meister
  • Oscar-Erich Kuntze
  • Jan-Egbert Sturm

Abstract

In its latest economic forecast, the Ifo Institute posits that the German economy is still characterised by a great deal of weakness and that the recovery is not yet on firm ground. Nonetheless, available indicators point to a continuation of the economic recovery. The Ifo Institute expects GDP growth of 0.7%. For next year the forecast is for a growth rate of 2.3%. The (seasonally adjusted) number of unemployed will still exceed the 4 million mark during coming months. Not until the fall can we expect a gradually declining trend. At 4.035 million for the entire year 2002, unemployment will average more than 180,000 more than in 2001. Although in 2003 the decline of unemployment will accelerate, at 3.9 million, the number of registered unemployed will remain frighteningly high. The unemployment rate will amount to 9.2% after 9.5% this year

Suggested Citation

  • Wolfgang Nierhaus & Wolfgang Meister & Oscar-Erich Kuntze & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2002. "Forecast 2002/2003. Chances for a new upswing," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 55(15), pages 19-44, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:55:y:2002:i:15:p:19-44
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    File URL: https://www.ifo.de/DocDL/ifosd_2002_15_3.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2001. "Two indicators for assessing the monetary policy of the European Central Bank," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 54(05), pages 47-49, October.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

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