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When will Germany turn?

Author

Listed:
  • Hans-Werner Sinn
  • Silke Übelmesser

Abstract

German society is ageing and birth rates are declining. The shifts in the age structure of the population are making it increasingly difficult to meet pension entitlements, and the younger generation's voting power in democratic decision-making is weakening. This article shows that there is currently a strategic majority for pension reform that will ease the burden on the younger generation. This majority will disappear, however, by about 2023 due to demographic developments. The voting structure will then turn, and Germany will find itself under a gerontocratic regime with a problematic impact on its ability to reform. Needed reforms must be implemented now, when strategic majorities are still present.

Suggested Citation

  • Hans-Werner Sinn & Silke Übelmesser, 2000. "When will Germany turn?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 53(28), pages 20-25, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:53:y:2000:i:28:p:20-25
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    File URL: https://www.ifo.de/DocDL/ifosd_2000_28_2.pdf
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Walter Krämer, 2016. "Die demografische Zeitbombe: Ursachen und Folgen der Kinderlosigkeit [The upcoming demographic disaster]," AStA Wirtschafts- und Sozialstatistisches Archiv, Springer;Deutsche Statistische Gesellschaft - German Statistical Society, vol. 10(4), pages 305-323, December.
    2. Hans-Werner Sinn & Silke Uebelmesser, 2001. "When Will the Germans Get Trapped in their Pension System?," NBER Working Papers 8503, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Buttler, Günter & Klein, Ingo, 2000. "Reform der Gesetzlichen Rentenversicherung durch die Einführung einer Zusatzrente auf Kapitalbasis: Ergebnisse von Modellrechnungen bis zum Jahr 2045," Discussion Papers 35/2000, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Chair of Statistics and Econometrics.
    4. Tim Krieger, 2002. "Chancen und Risiken für die nationalen Rentensysteme durch internationale Arbeitsmobilität," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 71(2), pages 199-214.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J26 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Retirement; Retirement Policies

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