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Arbeitstageeffekt und Bruttoinlandsprodukt : eine empirische Analyse mit einem strukturellen Komponentenmodel

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Author Info

  • Gebhard Flaig

Abstract

Das starke Wachstum des deutschen Bruttoinlandsprodukts im ersten Quartal 2000, aber auch die kürzlich veröffentlichte Konjunkturprognose des ifo Instituts haben wieder gezeigt, wie groß der Einfluss einer unterschiedlichen Zahl von Arbeitstagen auf das Wirtschaftswachstum sein kann. In dem Beitrag wird das Problem anhand eines strukturellen Zeitreihenmodells analysiert. Dabei wird nicht nur die Arbeitstagekomponente geschätzt, simultan erhält man auch Schätzungen für das Produktionspotential und den Output gap. Als »Nebenprodukt« liefert der Ansatz eine Prognosefunktion sowohl für die beobachtete Zeitreihe selbst als auch für die zugrunde liegenden Komponenten.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich in its journal ifo Schnelldienst.

Volume (Year): 53 (2000)
Issue (Month): 22-23 (08)
Pages: 12-17

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Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:53:y:2000:i:22-23:p:12-17

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Related research

Keywords: Sozialprodukt; Konjunkturforschung; Ökonometrisches Makromodell;

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Cited by:
  1. Klaus Abberger & Gebhard Flaig & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2007. "ifo Konjunkturumfragen und Konjunkturanalyse : ausgewählte methodische Aufsätze aus dem ifo Schnelldienst," ifo Forschungsberichte, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 33, June.
  2. Wolfgang Gerstenberger & Beate Grundig & Herbert Hofmann & Carsten Pohl & Heinz Schmalholz & Carola Vögtle & Michaela Votteler & Martin Werding, 2004. "Auswirkungen der EU-Osterweiterung auf Wirtschaft und Arbeitsmarkt in Sachsen," ifo Dresden Studien, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 35.
  3. Gebhard Flaig, 2001. "Gibt es einen »New-Economy-Effekt« auf das amerikanische Produktionspotential?," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 54(05), pages 16-21, October.
  4. Gebhard Flaig, 2002. "Unoberserved Components Models for Quarterly German GDP," CESifo Working Paper Series 681, CESifo Group Munich.
  5. Erich Langmantel, 2001. "Verlaufen die Konjunkturzyklen im Euro-Land ähnlich?," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 54(06), pages 53-54, October.

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