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Japan: Bankenkrise behindert Konjunkturerholung

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  • Hanns-Günther Hilpert

Abstract

Japans Wirtschaft ist nicht nur von einer Bankenkrise betroffen, sondern durchläuft derzeit auch die tiefste Rezession der Nachkriegszeit. Im Kalenderjahr 1998 dürfte das Niveau des japanischen Bruttoinlandsprodukts (BIP) um mindestens 2,5% gesunken sein. Das Tankan-Geschäftsklima erreichte am Jahresende 1998 einen historischen Tiefstand. Die Arbeitslosenquote hat mit 4,3% ein Rekordniveau erreicht. Die Baisse-Stimmung an der Tokioter Aktienbörse und an den Grundstücks- und Immobilienmärkten ist ungebrochen. Angesichts der konjunkturell angespannten Lage und der Vielzahl ungelöster Strukturprobleme erwartet die Mehrzahl der Prognostiker, daß das BIP 1999 erneut sinkt und die wirtschaftliche Stagnation auch mittel- bis langfristig anhält.

Suggested Citation

  • Hanns-Günther Hilpert, 1999. "Japan: Bankenkrise behindert Konjunkturerholung," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 52(08), pages 26-32, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:52:y:1999:i:08:p:26-32
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    Cited by:

    1. Beyfuß, Jörg & Grömling, Michael & Schäfer, Holger, 2002. "Konjunkturprognose 2003," IW-Trends – Vierteljahresschrift zur empirischen Wirtschaftsforschung, Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft (IW) / German Economic Institute, vol. 29(4), pages 11-33.

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