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Italien

Author

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  • Oscar-Erich Kuntze

Abstract

1992 erhöhte sich das reale Bruttoinlandsprodukt (BIP) um 1,1%. Das war die geringste Zuwachsrate seit 1983, d.h. seit Beginn des im Mai 1992 zu Ende gegangenen Aufschwungs. Für 1993 geht das ifo Institut von einer Stagnation des realen BIP aus; allerdings erlaubt der Umbruch, der das gesamte öffentliche Leben in Italien erschütterte, keine fundierte Prognose, sondern zwingt eher zur Spekulation. Die zu erwartende Abnahme der Inlandsnachfrage dürfte durch - abwertungsbedingt - kräftig wachsende Ausfuhren kompensiert werden. Die Lage auf dem Arbeitsmarkt wird sich weiter verschlechtern. 1994 dürfte sich das reale BIP - unter der Voraussetzung, daß die Krise im politischen, staatlich-institutionellen und administrativen Bereich überwunden werden kann - um etwa 1,5% erhöhen. Die Arbeitslosenquote wird nochmals leicht steigen.

Suggested Citation

  • Oscar-Erich Kuntze, 1993. "Italien," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 46(09), pages 24-33, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:46:y:1993:i:09:p:24-33
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