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Westdeutsche Wirtschaft : wie tief ist die Rezession?

Author

Listed:
  • Wolfgang Nierhaus
  • Willi Leibfritz

Abstract

Die westdeutsche Industrie befindet sich in der Rezession. Bisher verdeckte Strukturprobleme treten jetzt deutlicher zutage. Ein rasches Anspringen des Investitionsmotors ist wenig wahrscheinlich. Vom privaten Verbrauch sind ebenfalls keine positiven Impulse zu erwarten. Allerdings hat die Rezession in wichtigen Zweigen der westdeutschen Industrie nicht in größerem Ausmaß auf andere Sektoren übergegriffen. Das weltwirtschaftliche Umfeld hat sich ebenfalls etwas gebessert. Positive Akzente haben bereits die Lohnpolitik und die Geldpolitik gesetzt. Jetzt liegt das Schwergewicht bei der Finanzpolitik : notwendig sind der Verzicht auf weitere Steuer- und Abgabenerhöhungen im Jahr 1993, ein konsequentes mittelfristiges Sparprogramm und ein längerrfristiges Gesamtkonzept für die Sanierung der ostdeutschen Wirtschaft. Noch bestehen Chancen fürr einen konjunkturellen Umschwung im Verlauf des Jahres 1993. Sie könnten aber durch die finanz- und steuerpolitische Dauerdiskussion bald vertan sein.

Suggested Citation

  • Wolfgang Nierhaus & Willi Leibfritz, 1993. "Westdeutsche Wirtschaft : wie tief ist die Rezession?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 46(07), pages 10-15, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:46:y:1993:i:07:p:10-15
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    Cited by:

    1. Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2010. "The Ifo Business Cycle Clock: Circular Correlation with the Real GDP," CESifo Working Paper Series 3179, CESifo.
    2. António Rua & Nuno Lourenço, 2022. "Business cycle clocks: Time to get circular," Working Papers w202201, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    3. Nuno Lourenço & António Rua, 2023. "Business cycle clocks: Time to get circular," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(4), pages 1513-1541, October.
    4. Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2011. "Die ifo Konjunkturuhr: Zirkulare Korrelation mit dem realen Bruttoinlandsprodukt," AStA Wirtschafts- und Sozialstatistisches Archiv, Springer;Deutsche Statistische Gesellschaft - German Statistical Society, vol. 5(3), pages 179-201, December.
    5. Stefan Sauer & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2020. "ifo Handbuch der Konjunkturumfragen," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 88.
    6. Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2017. "Testing the Ifo Business Cycle Clock," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 70(04), pages 24-30, February.
    7. Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2008. "The Ifo Business-Cycle Clock: A precision instrument for the analysis of the economy," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 61(23), pages 16-24, December.
    8. Wolfgang Nierhaus & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2016. "ifo Konjunkturumfragen und Konjunkturanalyse: Band II," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 72.

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