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Der Beitrag zur Gesetzlichen Rentenversicherung im demographischen Wandel – Die Babyboomer gehen in Rente

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  • Wolfgang Nagl
  • Lars Vandrei

Abstract

Immer weniger Beitragszahler müssen zukünftig für immer mehr Rentner aufkommen. Gerade mit dem Eintritt der Babyboomer-Generation in die Rente steigt der Rentenquotient deutlich an. In einer Simulationsrechnung wird die voraussichtliche Entwicklung des Beitragssatzes zur Gesetzlichen Rentenversicherung bis ins Jahr 2040 aufgezeigt. Die Ergebnisse werden dabei mit den beiden Studien von HOLTHAUSEN et al. (2012) und WERDING (2013) verglichen. Alle drei Modelle prognostizieren einen signifikanten Anstieg des Beitragssatzes auf einen Wert zwischen 23,7 % und 24,8 %. Mittelfristig lässt sich der Übergang der Babyboom-Generation durch eine verstärkte Erwerbsbeteiligung der Frauen und der älteren Kohorten etwas abfedern, langfristig bedarf es aber einer längeren Lebensarbeitszeit, um den Anstieg des Beitragssatzes zu begrenzen.

Suggested Citation

  • Wolfgang Nagl & Lars Vandrei, 2013. "Der Beitrag zur Gesetzlichen Rentenversicherung im demographischen Wandel – Die Babyboomer gehen in Rente," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 20(04), pages 30-33, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifodre:v:20:y:2013:i:04:p:30-33
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    JEL classification:

    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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