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Prognose 2002 : Rezession wird allmählich überwunden

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  • Wolfgang Nierhaus

    ()

Abstract

Im 2. Halbjahr 2001 ist die deutsche Wirtschaft in die Rezession geraten. Ab dem zweiten Quartal 2002 wird die gesamtwirtschaftliche Produktion allmählich wieder Fahrt aufnehmen, angeregt durch eine anziehende US-Konjunktur und den Umschwung im Lagerzyklus. Im Jahresdurchschnitt 2002 wird der Anstieg des realen Bruttoinlandsprodukts mit 0,6 % nochmals gering ausfallen. Die Arbeitslosenzahl wird im Frühjahr saisonbereinigt die Vier-Millionen-Schwelle überschreiten. Der Preisauftrieb wird sich im Jahr 2002 auf 1,5% verlangsamen. Ein Viertel dieser Inflationsrate ist auf Steuererhöhungen zurückzuführen.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich in its journal ifo Dresden berichtet.

Volume (Year): 09 (2002)
Issue (Month): 01 (09)
Pages: 5-14

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Handle: RePEc:ces:ifodre:v:09:y:2002:i:01:p:5-14

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Keywords: Konjunkturprognose; Deutschland;

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