Financement des pensions : rétrospectives et perspectives

In the first section, we provide a retrospective analysis of the financing of the social security and pension system based on the national accounts series for the period 1995?2017. This section points out three important features: the progressive shift towards alternative financing; the stable share of contributions from employers, employees, and the self-employed; and the faster increase of pension expenditure relative to contributions since 2003. As for the dynamic between 2007 and 2017, pension expenditure has increased by 14.6 billion euros, three quarters of which is linked to the increase in the average pension and one quarter is due to the increasing number of retirees. In the second section, we provide a prospective view of the financing of pensions based on the demographic and employment projections of the Federal Planning Bureau. We simulate different adjustment mechanisms (beyond career adjustment), in particular the adjustment of contribution rates or the pension replacement rate. We show that mixing these two measures makes it possible to limit the contribution adjustment by one third and the pension adjustment by two third. Lastly, we show that, in the absence of contribution and/or pension adjustments, alternative financing would increase by 33% by 2040 if the employment rate increases, or by 50% if the employment rate is constant.