IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/cai/repdal/redp_226_0823.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Extreme Financial cycles

Author

Listed:
  • Bertrand Candelon
  • Guillaume Gaulier
  • Christophe Hurlin

Abstract

Cet article élabore une nouvelle méthodologie de datation des cycles financiers extrêmes. S?appuyant sur la théorie des valeurs extrêmes, il étend la « calculus rule » afin de détecter les pics et les creux exceptionnels. Appliquée sur des séries financières américaines depuis 1871, cette méthode permet de mieux appréhender les mouvements extrêmes et d?y apporter le cas échéant les réponses les plus adéquates.

Suggested Citation

  • Bertrand Candelon & Guillaume Gaulier & Christophe Hurlin, 2012. "Extreme Financial cycles," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 122(6), pages 823-831.
  • Handle: RePEc:cai:repdal:redp_226_0823
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.cairn.info/load_pdf.php?ID_ARTICLE=REDP_226_0823
    Download Restriction: free

    File URL: http://www.cairn.info/revue-d-economie-politique-2012-6-page-823.htm
    Download Restriction: free
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. P. Hartmann & S. Straetmans & C. G. de Vries, 2004. "Asset Market Linkages in Crisis Periods," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(1), pages 313-326, February.
    2. Candelon, B. & Metiu, N., 2009. "Testing for exceptional bulls and bears: a non-parametric perspective," Research Memorandum 017, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
    3. Edwards, Sebastian & Biscarri, Javier Gomez & Perez de Gracia, Fernando, 2003. "Stock market cycles, financial liberalization and volatility," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(7), pages 925-955, December.
    4. Biscarri, Javier GÛmez & Fernando PÈrez de Gracia, 2002. "Bulls and Bears: Lessons from some European Countries," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 28, Royal Economic Society.
    5. Bertrand Candelon & Pierre-Yves Hénin, 1995. "La récession des années quatre-vingt dix a-t-elle été exceptionnelle ?," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 120(4), pages 51-71.
    6. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Foreword to "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs"," NBER Chapters, in: Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs, pages -1, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Adrian R. Pagan & Kirill A. Sossounov, 2003. "A simple framework for analysing bull and bear markets," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 23-46.
    8. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bry_71-1, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Candelon, B. & Metiu, N., 2009. "Testing for exceptional bulls and bears: a non-parametric perspective," Research Memorandum 017, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
    2. Candelon, Bertrand & Piplack, Jan & Straetmans, Stefan, 2008. "On measuring synchronization of bulls and bears: The case of East Asia," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1022-1035, June.
    3. Erik Kole & Dick Dijk, 2017. "How to Identify and Forecast Bull and Bear Markets?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(1), pages 120-139, January.
    4. Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose & Marco E. Terrones, 2011. "Financial Cycles: What? How? When?," NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 7(1), pages 303-344.
    5. Jiang, Yu & Fang, Xianming, 2015. "Bull, bear or any other states in US stock market?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 54-58.
    6. Claessens, Stijn & Kose, M. Ayhan & Terrones, Marco E., 2012. "How do business and financial cycles interact?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 178-190.
    7. Straetmans, S.T.M. & Candelon, B. & Ahmed, J., 2012. "Predicting and capitalizing on stock market bears in the U.S," Research Memorandum 019, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
    8. Alexander Erler & Christian Drescher & Damir Križanac, 2013. "The Fed’s TRAP," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 37(1), pages 136-149, January.
    9. Carranza, Luis & Galdon-Sanchez, Jose E. & Gomez-Biscarri, Javier, 2009. "Exchange rate and inflation dynamics in dollarized economies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 98-108, May.
    10. Edwards, Sebastian & Biscarri, Javier Gomez & Perez de Gracia, Fernando, 2003. "Stock market cycles, financial liberalization and volatility," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(7), pages 925-955, December.
    11. Thillaikkoothan Palanichamy & Parthajit Kayal, 2022. "Multiple Dimensions of Cyclicality in Investing," Working Papers 2022-216, Madras School of Economics,Chennai,India.
    12. Mai Shibata, 2014. "The Influence of Japan’s Unsecured Overnight Call Rate on Bull and Bear Markets and Market Turns," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 21(4), pages 331-349, November.
    13. Teng Kee Tuan & Yen Siew Hwa & Chua Soo Yean, 2013. "Synchronisation of Stock Market Cycles: The Importance of Emerging and Developed Markets to ASEAN-5," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2013(4), pages 435-458.
    14. Warren Thomson, 2016. "Influence of market states on industry returns," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 17(2), pages 119-134, March.
    15. Cunado, J. & Gil-Alana, L.A. & Gracia, Fernando Perez de, 2010. "Mean reversion in stock market prices: New evidence based on bull and bear markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 113-122, June.
    16. Jansen, Dennis W. & Tsai, Chun-Li, 2010. "Monetary policy and stock returns: Financing constraints and asymmetries in bull and bear markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 981-990, December.
    17. J. Cuñado & L. Gil-Alana & F. Gracia, 2009. "US stock market volatility persistence: evidence before and after the burst of the IT bubble," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 33(3), pages 233-252, October.
    18. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2011. "An Econometric Analysis of Some Models for Constructed Binary Time Series," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 29(1), pages 86-95.
    19. Ernst Konrad, 2009. "The impact of monetary policy surprises on asset return volatility: the case of Germany," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 23(2), pages 111-135, June.
    20. German Forero-Laverde, 2016. "Are All Booms and Busts Created Equal? A New Methodology for Understanding Bull and Bear Stock Markets," UB School of Economics Working Papers 2016/339, University of Barcelona School of Economics.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cai:repdal:redp_226_0823. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Jean-Baptiste de Vathaire (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.cairn.info/revue-d-economie-politique.htm .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.