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Les retraites en France : que faire ?

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  • Henri Sterdyniak
  • Gaël Dupont
  • Alexis Dantec

Abstract

[eng] The American threat on the world-wide financial equilibrium Henri Sterdyniak Gael Dupont Alexis Dantec The French retirement system is mainly «pay-as-you-go » contributive one. It currently provides the elderly with satisfactory living standard, but in the future, it will have to face the deterioration of the dependency ratio. Recent reforms present drawbacks : the relative situation of pensioners will depend adversely on the economic situation : the unification of rules was eluded ; no guarantee on the future level of pensions has been given. The present level of unemployment forbids the retirement age in the short term. Pension funds do not constitute a « miracle solution » : the overall contribution rate will have to increase anyway. Building up reserves in « pay-as-you-go » schemes could limit the future level of contributions. However, this would require an immediate increase in contribution which could have negative macroeconomic impact. [fre] Le système français de retraite publique assure actuellement aux personnes âgées un revenu équivalent à celui des actifs. Il est essentiellement financé par la répartition. L'alourdissement du ratio entre retraités et actifs, qui devrait augmenter fortement après 2015 pour passer de 51,5% en 1997 à 83,5% en 2040, pose la question de son avenir. Le maintien à son niveau actuel du ratio de remplacement entre retraites et salaires net ferait passer le taux de cotisations retraite de 20,1% en 1997à 28,6 en 2040, soit une moindre progression de 0,3 point par an du salaire net. La stabilité du taux des cotisations retraite ferait baisser de 40% le niveau de vie relatif des retraités. Le report de l'âge de départà la retraite à 65 ans limiterait le ratio retraités/actifs à 62% en 2040. Mais il nécessite le retour au plein-emploi et la fin de l'exclusion précoce des travailleurs vieillissants. Dans le système français actuel, le premier pilier (le système public de solidarité) ne joue qu'un

(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Presses de Sciences-Po in its journal Revue de l'OFCE.

Volume (Year): n° 68 (1999)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 19-81

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Handle: RePEc:cai:reofsp:reof_p1999_68n1_0019

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Web page: http://www.cairn.info/revue-de-l-ofce.htm

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Cited by:
  1. Henri Sterdyniak, 2000. "Un examen de trois contributions au débat sur les retraites. Critique des rapports : "L'avenir des systèmes de retraite", "L'avenir des retraites" et "Retraites choisies et ," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/5286, Sciences Po.
  2. Ottilia Rouguet & Pierre Villa, 2000. "Le passage des retraites de la répartition à la capitalisation obligatoire : des simulations à l'aide s'une maquette calibrée," Working Papers 2000-02, CEPII research center.
  3. Arnaud Lechevalier, 2000. "L’épargne retraite en France : état des lieux et finalités d’une réforme," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 56(1), pages 217-240.

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