À propos de la volatilité de l'euro
Abstract[eng] Discussing Euro volatility. Jerome Creel and Henri Sterdyniak. Is the introduction of the euro likely to increase the volatility of the exchange rates on a worldwide scale ? This article presents a three countries model to compare the exchange rate volatility depending on the nature of the shocks and the exchange rate regime in Europe (flexible, EMS or EMU). In theory, the exchange rate of a large closed country fluctuates more than that the exchange rate of a small open country, but results are ambiguous in the specific case of the euro. An increase in volatility would only occur after demand and external supply shocks. Volatility would be reduced following internal supply shocks. The conclusions are the opposite if the sensitivity of intra-European trade to relative prices is particularly strong. In the case of common shocks in Europe, the surplus in volatility would help economic stabilisation. As for (hitting only one country), the euro would fluctuate less than the currency of the hit country, but this stability would harm economic stabilisation. However, the independence of the ECB could lead to strong variations of the euro after inflationary shocks. In addition, the constraints on fiscal policies which are induced by the Stability pact would make more active monetary policies necessary : these would be a source of instability. [fre] Faut-il craindre que instauration de euro accroisse la volatilitÃ© des taux de change Ã©chelle mondiale ? Cet article utilise une maquette Ã trois pays pour comparer la volatilitÃ© du taux de change selon la nature des chocs et le rÃ©gime de change en Europe (change flexible, SME ou UEM). Si, thÃ©oriquement, le taux de change d'un grand pays fermÃ© fluctue plus que celui un petit pays ouvert, les rÃ©sultats sont mitigÃ©s dans le cas spÃ©cifique de l'euro. Le surplus de volatilitÃ© n'aurait lieu que pour des chocs de demande ou des chocs d'offre externe. La volatilitÃ© serait rÃ©duite Ã la suite de chocs d'offre interne. C
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Presses de Sciences-Po in its journal Revue de l'OFCE.
Volume (Year): n° 65 (1998)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
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Web page: http://www.cairn.info/revue-de-l-ofce.htm
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