Ralentissement de la croissance potentielle et hausse du chômage
Abstract[eng] Since 1973, the industrialized countries growth has seriously slown down. In some countries (the United States, Japan), the unemployment rate has not been hited. On the contrary, unemployment has continuously increased in nearly every european countries. Consequently, what part of the growth slowdown is due to the potential output low pace of growth ? Has the equilibrium unemployment rate really increased in Europe ? Is this increase linked to the potential output slowdown ? This paper is a survey of the theoritical and empirical links between potential output and unemployment in the indutrialized countries, especially in Europe. The potential output growth may be defined as the non accelerating inflation rate level of production. Some try to estimate this output on the basis of purely statistical methods. However, other approachs using an explicit production function appear to be well better. According to this point of view, results from the international organisms imply very strong conclusions for Europe : the prÃ©sent weakness of the potential output growth ( between 2.1 and 2.3 %) and a narrow output gap in 1995 ( -0.3 % for EC, -1.5 % for OECD, -2.2 % for the IMF). But thÃ¨se results underestimate the labor and capital capacities as well as technical progress. Four reasons can explain the slowdown of potential output pace. First of ail, we can assume an exogeneous drop of the technical progress (which remains largely misunderstood in spite of empirical investigations using both traditional or endogeneous growth theoritical framework). Secondly, labour market rigidities can be a proper candidate explaining how the slowdown of technical progress has pushed up the unemployment equilibrium, but not as much as observed. A third explanation can be found in a insufficient capital accumulation path, due to the weak profitability of corporate sector (but that explanation does not seem suitable to the european context). At least, actual growth can modify potential
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Presses de Sciences-Po in its journal Revue de l'OFCE.
Volume (Year): n° 60 (1997)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.cairn.info/revue-de-l-ofce.htm
Other versions of this item:
- Henri Sterdyniak & Christine Rifflart & Olivier Passet, 1997. "Ralentissement de la croissance potentielle et hausse du chômage," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 60(1), pages 109-146.
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Gian Luigi Mazzi & Frédéric Reynès & Matthieu Lemoine & Paola Veroni, 2008. "Real Time Estimation of Potential Output and Output Gap for the Euro-Area : Comparing Production Function with Unobserved Components and SVAR Approaches," Sciences Po publications 2008-34, Sciences Po.
- Matthieu Lemoine & Gian Luigi Mazzi & Paola Monperrus-Veroni & Frédéric Reynes, 2008.
"Real time estimation of potential output and output gap for the euro-area: comparing production function with unobserved components and SVAR approaches,"
Documents de Travail de l'OFCE
2008-34, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
- Lemoine, Matthieu & Mazzi, Gian Luigi & Monperrus-Veroni, Paola & Reynes, Frédéric, 2008. "Real time estimation of potential output and output gap for theeuro-area: comparing production function with unobserved componentsand SVAR approaches," MPRA Paper 13128, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Nov 2008.
- Bruno Ducoudré, 2005. "Fiscal policy and interest rates," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2005-08, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
- Frédéric Reynès & Henri Sterdyniak & Eric Heyer, 2004. "Observable and unobservable variables in the theory of the equilibrium rate of unemployment, a comparison between France and the United States," Sciences Po publications nÂ°2004-06, Sciences Po.
- Heyer, Eric & Reynes, Frederic & Sterdyniak, Henri, 2007. "Structural and reduced approaches of the equilibrium rate of unemployment, a comparison between France and the United States," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 42-65, January.
- Bruno Ducoudré, 2006. "Politique monetaire, inertie des taux longs Americains et choix de portefeuille," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2006-09, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jean-Baptiste de Vathaire).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.