Perspectives à moyen terme de l'économie française 1994-2000
Abstract[eng] Forecasts for the French economy in 1994-2000 Loic Cadiou, Gerard Cornilleau, Catherine Mathieu France's growth rate should reach 3.5 % in 1995. Will this recovery be long-lasting ? In order to explore all the possibilites, two scenarios have been considered : the first one is characterised by a moderate growth rate in most countries (2.5 % from 1994 to 2000), and the second one by faster growth within the European Community (an average of 3.6 % from 1994 to 2000). In both cases, from the supply side, France could easily respond to its partners's demand. But beyond the investment cycle due to capacity adjustment (1995-1997), domestic demand would not reach a sufficient rate of increase to avoid the slowdown of growth. Indeed, the high level of unemployment, which limits real wage growth, and the rapid reduction of the public defict would strongly depress domestic demand. With an average growth rate of 2.4% from 1994 to 2000 in the first scenario, unemployment would barely be stabilised in spite of the decrease of the slope of labour productivity. In the second scenario, the faster reduction of public deficit due to stronger growth would allow a relaxation of fiscal policy and thus lead to a more dynamic domestic demand. If budge-tary policy were more accomodating still, French growth, which then could reach an average rate of 3.4 % over the next five years, would lead to a decrease of just one percentage point of the unemployment rate (300 000 persons from 1994 to 2000). This reduction would not be sufficient to eliminate the increase from the last slowdown period (800 000 more unemployed persons from 1990 to 1993). [fre] En 1995, la France devrait retrouver une croissance de l'ordre de 3,5 %. Ce regain est-il durable ? Pour explorer les Ã©volutions possibles, deux scÃ©narios ont Ã©tÃ© envisagÃ©s ; le premier est caractÃ©risÃ© par une croissance modÃ©rÃ©e dans la plupart des pays (2,5 % de 1994 Ã 2000), le second retient une croissance plus forte dans l'ution
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Presses de Sciences-Po in its journal Revue de l'OFCE.
Volume (Year): n° 52 (1995)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.cairn.info/revue-de-l-ofce.htm
Other versions of this item:
- Loïc Cadiou & Gérard Cornilleau & Catherine Mathieu, 1995. "Perspectives à moyen terme de l'économie française 1994-2000," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 52(1), pages 7-27.
You can help add them by filling out this form.
reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Access and download statisticsgeneral information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jean-Baptiste de Vathaire).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.