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Convergences nominale et réelle parmi les pays de la CE et de l'AELE

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  • Rahim Loufir
  • Lucrezia Reichlin

Abstract

[eng] Nominal and Real Convergence in EC and EFTA countries This paper estimates the speed of convergence towards German values of nominal and real macroeconomic indicators of EC and EFTA countries for the last twenty years (for real GDP per capita we consider the period 1950- 1988). We use a time-varying parameters method proposed by Haldane and Hall (1 991 ) which allows us to evaluate changes in the speed of convergence in relation to institutional changes such as the creation of the European Monetary System (EMS). Empirical results indicate that the EMS has favoured price convergence of participating countries, but not convergence of nominal interest rates. Moreover, countries which have converged towards the German inflation rate, have generally diverged from its level of real GDP per capita. However, with the exception of the UK, so have those EC countries which have not participated in the EMS and have not converged to the German inflation rate. The only group of countries that, in the eighties, has converged towards the German real performance is the group of countries within EFTA, which, on the other hand, has not converged with respect to the inflation rate. [fre] Cet article se propose d'estimer la vitesse de convergence de certains indicateurs macroéconomiques, nominaux et réels, des pays de la Communauté européenne (CE) et de l'Association économique de libre échange (AELE) vers les valeurs observées en Allemagne, pendant les vingt dernières années. La méthodologie employée permet d'évaluer l'ampleur et la durée des changements structurels associés à des modifications institutionnelles, telles que la création du Système monétaire européen (SME). Les résultats empiriques indiquent que le SME a favorisé la convergence des taux d'inflation des pays membres mais pas celle des taux d'intérêt nominaux. En outre, les pays qui ont convergé vers le taux d'inflation allemand ont généralement divergé en termes de niveau du PIB réel par

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Presses de Sciences-Po in its journal Revue de l'OFCE.

Volume (Year): n° 43 (1993)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 69-92

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Handle: RePEc:cai:reofsp:reof_p1993_43n1_0069

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Web page: http://www.cairn.info/revue-de-l-ofce.htm

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