Convergences nominale et réelle parmi les pays de la CE et de l'AELE
Abstract[eng] Nominal and Real Convergence in EC and EFTA countries This paper estimates the speed of convergence towards German values of nominal and real macroeconomic indicators of EC and EFTA countries for the last twenty years (for real GDP per capita we consider the period 1950- 1988). We use a time-varying parameters method proposed by Haldane and Hall (1 991 ) which allows us to evaluate changes in the speed of convergence in relation to institutional changes such as the creation of the European Monetary System (EMS). Empirical results indicate that the EMS has favoured price convergence of participating countries, but not convergence of nominal interest rates. Moreover, countries which have converged towards the German inflation rate, have generally diverged from its level of real GDP per capita. However, with the exception of the UK, so have those EC countries which have not participated in the EMS and have not converged to the German inflation rate. The only group of countries that, in the eighties, has converged towards the German real performance is the group of countries within EFTA, which, on the other hand, has not converged with respect to the inflation rate. [fre] Cet article se propose d'estimer la vitesse de convergence de certains indicateurs macroÃ©conomiques, nominaux et rÃ©els, des pays de la CommunautÃ© europÃ©enne (CE) et de l'Association Ã©conomique de libre Ã©change (AELE) vers les valeurs observÃ©es en Allemagne, pendant les vingt derniÃ¨res annÃ©es. La mÃ©thodologie employÃ©e permet d'Ã©valuer l'ampleur et la durÃ©e des changements structurels associÃ©s Ã des modifications institutionnelles, telles que la crÃ©ation du SystÃ¨me monÃ©taire europÃ©en (SME). Les rÃ©sultats empiriques indiquent que le SME a favorisÃ© la convergence des taux d'inflation des pays membres mais pas celle des taux d'intÃ©rÃªt nominaux. En outre, les pays qui ont convergÃ© vers le taux d'inflation allemand ont gÃ©nÃ©ralement divergÃ© en termes de niveau du PIB rÃ©el par
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Presses de Sciences-Po in its journal Revue de l'OFCE.
Volume (Year): n° 43 (1993)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
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Web page: http://www.cairn.info/revue-de-l-ofce.htm
Other versions of this item:
- Rahim Loufir & Lucrezia Reichlin, 1993. "Convergences nominale et réelle parmi les pays de la CE et de l'AELE," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 43(1), pages 69-92.
- Lucrezia Reichlin & Rahim Loufir, 1993. "Convergence nominale et réelle parmi les pays de la CE et de l'AELE," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/10207, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
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