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Les politiques budgétaires sont-elles contra-cycliques dans la zone euro ?

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  • Florence Huart

Abstract

We study the relationship between the change in the cyclically-adjusted primary balance and the change in the output gap. The former variable is taken as an indicator of discretionary fiscal policy. The latter is an indicator of cyclical conditions. We use panel data for the euro area and data for twelve euro area countries (and three EU countries and three OECD countries for comparison). The sample covers the period 1970-2008. We show that fiscal policy was countercyclical in all euro area member countries in 2009. However, over the period 1970-2008, countercyclicality was little frequent in those countries to compare with other OECD countries. Moreover, since 1999, fiscal policies in the euro area have no longer been procyclical during good times, but they have been procyclical during bad times in two countries, Austria and Portugal. JEL Classification codes: E62.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Presses de Sciences-Po in its journal Revue de l'OFCE.

Volume (Year): n° 116 (2011)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 149-172

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Handle: RePEc:cai:reofsp:reof_116_0149

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Web page: http://www.cairn.info/revue-de-l-ofce.htm

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Keywords: cyclical behaviour of fiscal policy; countercyclical fiscal stance; Discretion; Stability and Growth Pact;

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