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Taux de rendement interne par génération des régimes obligatoires de retraite. Calcul à l'aide d'un modèle de microsimulation dynamique

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  • Ronan Mahieu
  • Carole Bonnet

Abstract

[fre] Afin d'évaluer l'évolution prévisible du rendement des régimes publics obligatoires d'assurance-vieillesse en France et d'en analyser les effets en termes de transferts inter et intragénérationnels, nous simulons le devenir d'un échantillon d'environ 40 000 individus à l'aide du modèle Destinie. Le taux de rendement interne de ces régimes décroîtrait de plus de 9% pour la génération 1920 à un peu plus de 3 % pour la génération 1974. Le vieillissement (via des cotisations plus fortes) explique en partie la diminution du rendement pour les dernières générations. Mais il apparaît que l'augmentation sensible de l'espérance de vie aux âges élevés pourrait permettre le maintien des taux de rendement à des valeurs supérieures à 3 % pour les générations des années soixante et soixante-dix. [eng] Computing the internal rate of return of public mandatory pensions with a dynamic microsimulation model. . . In order to compute the rate of return of French mandatory pay-as-you-go pensions schemes, we simulate the evolution of a 40,000 individuals sample with the Destinie model. Indeed, microsimulation techniques provide not only a more precise description of individual benefits, but also a simultaneous analysis of intergenerational and intragenerational transfers. The rate of return of these schemes should also decrease from over 9 % for the 1920 cohort to about 3 % for the 1974 cohort: higher payroll taxes involve a decrease for the last cohorts. Nonetheless, the dramatic rise in life expectancy may help maintain the rate of return above 3 % for cohorts born in the 1960's and 1970's.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Presses de Sciences-Po in its journal Revue économique.

Volume (Year): n° 51 (2000)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 77-95

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Handle: RePEc:cai:recosp:reco_p2000_51n1_0077

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Web page: http://www.cairn.info/revue-economique.htm

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Cited by:
  1. François Legendre, 2004. "Micro-simulation et évaluation des politiques économiques et sociale : un panorama des développements récents en France," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 0(1), pages 17-53.
  2. Anne-Gisèle Privat, 2005. "L'avenir des retraites en France: Evalutation de l'impact des réformes de 1993 et de 2033 à l'aide du modèle de microsimulation Artémis," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/f4rshpf3v1u, Sciences Po.
  3. Briard, Karine, 2009. "Un modèle de carrières types dynamiques pondérées pour le Régime général d’assurance vieillesse : une application aux conséquences de la réforme de 2003," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/6330, Paris Dauphine University.
  4. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/f4rshpf3v1umfa09lat214kj4 is not listed on IDEAS
  5. Karine Briard, 2009. "Un modèle de carrières types dynamiques pondérées pour le régime général d’assurance vieillesse : une application aux conséquences de la réforme de 2003," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 187(1), pages 47-64.

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