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Compétitivité et régime de change en Europe centrale

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Author Info

  • Camille Baulant
  • Virginie Coudert
  • Michel Aglietta

Abstract

[fre] Les pays d'Europe centrale connaissent une ouverture rapide au commerce international et le plus souvent une appréciation de leur taux de change réel. En construisant un modèle dont les équations sont estimées pour trois pays, la Hongrie, la Pologne et la République tchèque, on montre que la conjonction de ces deux facteurs structurels met en péril la modernisation dans le respect de l'équilibre extérieur. L'inflation est sous contrôle mais doit rester à un niveau assez élevé pour que les entreprises financent l'investissement productif sans recours excessif aux entrées de capitaux. Ces contraintes conduisent à des politiques de taux de change réel guidées par la profitabilité des entreprises. [eng] Central Europe countries have experimented a rapid opening of their international trade, and their real exchange rate has had a tendency to appreciate on the long run. We built a model in order to link the GDP growth and the trade balance to the opening ratio and the real exchange rate. We show that the simultaneous rise in the opening ratio and the appreciation of the exchange rate jeopardise the trade balance, taking into account the necessary high demand growth. Inflation is declining but should remain at a sufficient level for the firms to finance their investment without excessively borrowing from abroad. The choice of exchange rate regimes should therefore take into account these constraints.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Presses de Sciences-Po in its journal Revue économique.

Volume (Year): n° 50 (1999)
Issue (Month): 6 ()
Pages: 1221-1236

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Handle: RePEc:cai:recosp:reco_p1999_50n6_1221

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Web page: http://www.cairn.info/revue-economique.htm

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References

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  1. repec:imf:imfeci:2 is not listed on IDEAS
  2. Carlos A. Végh Gramont & Guillermo Calvo & Carmen Reinhart, 1994. "Targeting the Real Exchange Rate: Theory and Evidence," IMF Working Papers 94/22, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Begg, David, 1997. "Monetary Policy during Transition: Progress and Pitfalls in Central and Eastern Europe, 1990-6," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 13(2), pages 33-46, Summer.
  4. C Grafe & C Wyplosz, 1998. "The Real Exchange Rate in Transition Economies," CEP Discussion Papers dp0395, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  5. László Halpern & Charles Wyplosz, 1997. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Economies," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(4), pages 430-461, December.
  6. Halpern, László, 1996. "Real Exchange Rates and Exchange Rate Policy in Hungary," CEPR Discussion Papers 1366, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Alexander W. Hoffmaister, 1996. "Capital Inflows and the Real Exchange Rate: Analytical Framework and Econometric Evidence," IMF Working Papers 96/137, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Pinelopi K. Goldberg & Michael M. Knetter, 1996. "Goods Prices and Exchange Rates: What Have We Learned?," NBER Working Papers 5862, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Cited by:
  1. Égert, Balázs & Lommatzsch, Kirsten, 2004. "Equilibrium exchange rates in the transition: The tradable price-based real appreciation and estimation uncertainty," BOFIT Discussion Papers 9/2004, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  2. Kierzenkowski, Rafal, 2002. "The Multi-Regime Bank Lending Channel and the Effectiveness of the Polish Monetary Policy Transmission During Transition," CEPR Discussion Papers 3624, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Michel Aglietta & Camille Baulant & Sandra Moatti, 2003. "Les PECO devant la tentation de l'euro," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 93, pages 11-36.

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