Le potentiel d'échanges entre l'Union européenne et les PECO. Un réexamen
Abstract[fre] La rÃ©orientation des Ã©changes des pays en transition vers l'Union europÃ©enne pose deux questions. Les niveaux d'Ã©changes dÃ©jÃ atteints seront-ils dÃ©passÃ©s ? Comment le degrÃ© de spÃ©cialisation va-t-il Ã©voluer ? Les modÃ¨les de gravitation en panel apportent des rÃ©ponses. Le potentiel de commerce de court terme est dÃ©jÃ rempli pour plusieurs pays. Ã moyen terme, l'accession devrait avoir un effet limitÃ© et asymÃ©trique sur les Ã©changes, au dÃ©triment des pays en transition. L'accession aura surtout pour effet de modifier la nature du commerce, au bÃ©nÃ©fice des Ã©chanÂges intra-branche de produits diffÃ©renciÃ©s verticalement. Ã plus long terme, une fois les ajustements structurels effectuÃ©s, le commerce pourrait augmenter dans des proportions importantes. [eng] The changing patterns of CEECs' external trade flows raise two questions. First, has the trade potential with Europe already been exhausted? Second, how will the degree of specialisation change in the future? Gravity models estimated using panel data provide answers to both questions. The short-term trade potential is largely exhausted for numerous countries. The perspective of enlargement of the EU will be associated with only a slight additional asymmetric increase in trade flows, detrimental to the CEECs. However, trade types will change in depth as a result of the future enlargement. The share of intra-industry trade in vertically differentiated products will be boosted, while inter-industry trade will shrink. In the long run however, all structural adjustments being completed, trade flows could increase in larger proportions.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Presses de Sciences-Po in its journal Revue économique.
Volume (Year): n° 50 (1999)
Issue (Month): 6 ()
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- Lionel Fontagné & Michael Freudenberg & Michaël Pajot, 1999. "Le potentiel d'échanges entre l'Union européenne et les PECO. Un réexamen," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 50(6), pages 1139-1168.
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