Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Le potentiel d'échanges entre l'Union européenne et les PECO. Un réexamen

Contents:

Author Info

  • Michael Freudenberg
  • Michaël Pajot
  • Lionel Fontagné

Abstract

[fre] La réorientation des échanges des pays en transition vers l'Union européenne pose deux questions. Les niveaux d'échanges déjà atteints seront-ils dépassés ? Comment le degré de spécialisation va-t-il évoluer ? Les modèles de gravitation en panel apportent des réponses. Le potentiel de commerce de court terme est déjà rempli pour plusieurs pays. À moyen terme, l'accession devrait avoir un effet limité et asymétrique sur les échanges, au détriment des pays en transition. L'accession aura surtout pour effet de modifier la nature du commerce, au bénéfice des échan­ges intra-branche de produits différenciés verticalement. À plus long terme, une fois les ajustements structurels effectués, le commerce pourrait augmenter dans des proportions importantes. [eng] The changing patterns of CEECs' external trade flows raise two questions. First, has the trade potential with Europe already been exhausted? Second, how will the degree of specialisation change in the future? Gravity models estimated using panel data provide answers to both questions. The short-term trade potential is largely exhausted for numerous countries. The perspective of enlargement of the EU will be associated with only a slight additional asymmetric increase in trade flows, detrimental to the CEECs. However, trade types will change in depth as a result of the future enlargement. The share of intra-industry trade in vertically differentiated products will be boosted, while inter-industry trade will shrink. In the long run however, all structural adjustments being completed, trade flows could increase in larger proportions.

(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.cairn.info/load_pdf.php?ID_ARTICLE=RECO_P1999_50N6_1139
Download Restriction: free

File URL: http://www.cairn.info/revue-economique-1999-6-page-1139.htm
Download Restriction: free

Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Presses de Sciences-Po in its journal Revue économique.

Volume (Year): n° 50 (1999)
Issue (Month): 6 ()
Pages: 1139-1168

as in new window
Handle: RePEc:cai:recosp:reco_p1999_50n6_1139

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.cairn.info/revue-economique.htm

Related research

Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

References

No references listed on IDEAS
You can help add them by filling out this form.

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Leandro Rothmuller, 2003. "Does FDI Matter for Trade in Brazil? An Application of the Gravity Model," Anais do XXXI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 31th Brazilian Economics Meeting] c71, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
  2. Angela Cheptea, 2013. "Border Effects and European Integration," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo, vol. 59(2), pages 277-305, June.
  3. Sophie Chauvin, 2001. "Exit Options for Argentina with a Special Focus on Their Impact on External Trade," Working Papers 2001-07, CEPII research center.
  4. Helena Marques & Hugh Metcalf, 2003. "Extending the EU Single Market Eastwards: Sectoral Trade and Real Wage Effects," Discussion Paper Series 2003_10, Department of Economics, Loughborough University, revised Oct 2003.
  5. Angela Cheptea, 2010. "Border Effects and East-West Integration," Working Papers SMART - LERECO 201015, INRA UMR SMART.
  6. Disdier, Anne-Celia & Mayer, Thierry, 2004. "How different is Eastern Europe? Structure and determinants of location choices by French firms in Eastern and Western Europe," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 280-296, June.
  7. Jože P. Damijan & José De Sousa & Olivier Lamotte, 2006. "The Effect of Trade Liberalization in South-Eastern European Countries," wiiw Balkan Observatory Working Papers 070, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
  8. J. Caetano & A. Galego & E. Vaz & C. Vieira & I. Vieira, 2002. "The Eastward Enlargement of the Eurozone: Trade and FDI," Eastward Enlargement of the Euro-zone Working Papers wp07, Free University Berlin, Jean Monnet Centre of Excellence, revised 01 Aug 2002.
  9. Andres Faiña & Jesus Lopez-Rodríguez, 2003. "Population Potentials and Development Levels: Empirical Findings in the European Union," ERSA conference papers ersa03p30, European Regional Science Association.
  10. A. Porojan, 2001. "Trade Flows and Spatial Effects: The Gravity Model Revisited," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 12(3), pages 265-280, July.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cai:recosp:reco_p1999_50n6_1139. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jean-Baptiste de Vathaire).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.