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Vers un élargissement sélectif de l'Union européenne. Dix pays - deux cercles

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  • Luis Miotti
  • Nicolas Meunier
  • Béatrice Auzouy
  • Fadhel Lakhoua
  • Nathalie Ricoeur-Nicolaï

Abstract

[fre] Parmi les dix pays de l'Est candidats à l'adhésion à l'Union européenne, seuls cinq ont été retenus : Hongrie, Pologne, République tchèque, Slovénie et Estonie. L'analyse des données, à partir de critères quantitatifs approchant les décisions qualitatives exprimées, permet d'« objectiver » le choix de la Commission. Une première série d'ACM (analyse factorielle des composantes multiples) conclut à la pertinence objective du choix de la Commission. Une seconde série d'analyses montre, en revanche, que la sélection s'est opérée essentiellement non sur la capacité actuelle d'intégration viable des différentes économies mais sur leur potentiel. Cet a priori peut devenir auto-réalisateur pour les pays retenus (dynamique de financement favorable), comme pour les pays exclus - Bulgarie, Roumanie, Slovaquie, Lettonie et Lituanie (limitation des sources de financement et accroissement de l'écart avec les premiers). [eng] Of the ten applicants for European Union membership from central/eastern Europe, only five have been accepted: the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Poland, and Slovenia. We use data analysis methods on quantitative criteria reflecting the qualitative decisions to "objectivate" the Commission's choices. Beginning with a multivariate analysis, we conclude that the choice was appropriate in objective terms. Our second series of analyses, however, shows that the main decision-making criterion was not the countries present capacity to achieve viable integration into the EU, but rather their potential ability to do so. This ex ante criterion can become self-fulfilling for both the accepted and the rejected countries: the accepted countries may find it easier to obtain financing, while the rejected countries - Bulgaria, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, and Slovakia - may face a re­striction in their access to finance and a widening gap with the accepted countries.

(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Presses de Sciences-Po in its journal Revue économique.

Volume (Year): n° 50 (1999)
Issue (Month): 6 ()
Pages: 1101-1122

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Handle: RePEc:cai:recosp:reco_p1999_50n6_1101

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Web page: http://www.cairn.info/revue-economique.htm

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Cited by:
  1. Claude LACOUR (IERSO, IFReDE-GRES) & Stéphane VIROL (IERSO, IFReDE-GRES), 2005. "European regional policy: new bases, new borders? (In French)," Cahiers du GRES 2005-21, Groupement de Recherches Economiques et Sociales.

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