Pourquoi le SME a explosé et comment le relancer ?
Abstract[fre] Pourquoi le SME a explosÃ© et comment le relancer ?. . Les quatre interprÃ©tations avancÃ©es Ã la suite des crises de change de 1992 et de 1993 sont probablement complÃ©mentaires. Les leÃ§ons Ã tirer conduisent Ã porter un jugement pessimiste sur les possibilitÃ©s de survie du SME et donc du traitÃ© de Maastricht, faisant mÃªme planer une menace sur le MarchÃ© commun. La plupart des mesures proposÃ©es pour faire face Ã la nouvelle situation ignorent l'une ou l'autre de ces leÃ§ons. La tendance dominante est de parier sur un heuÂreux concours de circonstances. Il est prÃ©fÃ©rable de prÃ©voir le pire. Une mesure prudentielle simple, l'obligation d'un dÃ©pÃ´t non rÃ©munÃ©rÃ© sur les positions ouvertes, restaure l'Ã©lÃ©ment de stabilitÃ© perdu avec l'abandon des contrÃ´les de change. [eng] Why did the ems blow-up and how to fix it . . Four usual interpretations of the exchange crises of 1992 and 1993 are not mutually exclusive. Taken together, however, they send an ominous signal about EMS chances of survival and the prospects for achieving monetary union along the Unes of the Maastricht Treaty. The Common Market's future itself might be at stake over the longer run. A number of proposais have been advanced recently. Unfortunately each of them fail to properly take into account one or the other among the lessons drawn from the crises. The risk is that we now hope for the best. Proper policy planning ought to be ready for the worst. This paper porposes a simple prudential measure, establishing mandatory deposits on open positions.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Presses de Sciences-Po in its journal Revue économique.
Volume (Year): n° 45 (1994)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
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Other versions of this item:
- Charles Wyplosz & Jean Pisani-Ferry & Barry Eichengreen, 1994. "Pourquoi le SME a explosé et comment le relancer ?," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 45(3), pages 673-688.
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- Bouoiyour, Jamal & Rey, Serge, 1995.
"Chocs externes et ajustements des taux de change réels européens
[External shocks and adjustment of European real exchange rates]," MPRA Paper 30241, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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