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Le retour des motifs mercantilistes dans la demande de réserves internationales des pays émergents

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  • Anne-Laure Delatte
  • Julien Fouquau

Abstract

According to the existing empirical literature, Central Banks in emerging countries accumulate international reserves exclusively for precautionary motives. In sum, they would hoard reserves to hedge against sudden-stop episodes. This explanation is convincing until the nineties, but it neglects the fact that emerging economies which were net international debtors have become net creditors since then. In this paper, we test the hypothesis that the motives for international reserves hoarding are not stable during the period. We estimate the demand for international reserves in a panel of emerging countries from 1981 to 2007 with a time-varying panel smooth transition model (tv-pstr). We find evidence of non-linearity and the relationship is found to change gradually over time. We show that the relative weight of the determinants has changed over time, i.e. the precautionary motives have faded away in favor of mercantilist motives. Classification JEL : C23, E58, F31, F41.

Suggested Citation

  • Anne-Laure Delatte & Julien Fouquau, 2012. "Le retour des motifs mercantilistes dans la demande de réserves internationales des pays émergents," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 63(5), pages 1013-1023.
    • Handle: RePEc:cai:recosp:reco_635_1013
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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