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Impact d'un choc sur les corrélations de trois indices boursiers. La faillite de Lehman Brothers

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  • Yannick Le Pen
  • Benoît Sévi

Abstract

We proceed to an impulse-response analysis on the conditional correlations between three stock indices returns: the S&P 500, the ftse 100 and the Nikkei 225. As a first step, a general asymmetric dynamic conditional correlation (ga-dcc) model proposed by Cappiello, Engle and Sheppard [2006] is estimated. In a second step, we quantify the impact of two historical shocks on subsequent conditional correlations along the lines of Koop, Pesaran and Potter [1996]. The first chosen shock marks the beginning of the subprimes crisis and occurs on 08/14/2007. The second one corresponds to 09/16/2008, just after the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers. Our estimates show that these two historical shocks had rather different impacts on conditional correlations. Classification JEL : C22, C32, E17, G15.

Suggested Citation

  • Yannick Le Pen & Benoît Sévi, 2010. "Impact d'un choc sur les corrélations de trois indices boursiers. La faillite de Lehman Brothers," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 61(3), pages 407-419.
    • Handle: RePEc:cai:recosp:reco_613_0407
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    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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